Riyadh confronts critical strategic dilemmas amid widening Houthi offensive

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have broken through front lines that had been largely static since 2022, advancing to secure key positions near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait and establishing a new theater in the conflict that has destabilized the region since the US and Israeli strikes against Iran-aligned forces in February.

In recent days, Iran-backed Houthi forces have captured the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands and the Red Sea port city of Mocha, consolidating their control over one of the world’s critical energy corridors amid resistance from Yemeni government-aligned troops.

Strategic alliances under strain

The strategic significance of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has intensified since Iran demonstrated its capacity to severely disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US and Israeli operations, with experts cautioning that this latest Houthi advance could further drive up global fuel prices.

For Saudi Arabia, the threat has moved from theoretical to immediate. A drone strike on its East-West Pipeline—a roughly 1,200km conduit transporting approximately 4% of global oil supplies from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea port of Yanbu—forced a shutdown with uncertain restoration timelines.

With that pipeline offline and Houthi forces tightening their grip on Red Sea coastal areas and islands adjacent to Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia’s two primary alternative export routes around Hormuz face simultaneous pressure.

Through its alliance with the Houthis, Iran is threatening nearly a third of the global oil economy, according to Baraa Shiban, a Yemen and Gulf analyst at the Royal United Service Institute.

“Iran recognized it could not prevail in a conventional battlefront conflict, so it is waging economic warfare against the world,” he said, citing the US’s difficulty sustaining an expanded Gulf engagement. “The last thing Trump can tell the American public is that they must commit to yet another front inside Yemen.”

Alliance dynamics

As the conflict encroaches on Riyadh’s economic arteries, the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement—signed between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan in August—has gained urgency. Earlier this month, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated the pact would be activated following an unprovoked attack on Saudi Arabia or if Yemeni fighting spilled into the kingdom. “There should be no doubt in this,” Asif said.

However, the precise nature of any intervention remains unclear.

“Saudi Arabia will inevitably need to pursue a military option against the Houthis, whether limited or sustained,” Shiban noted. “In doing so, they will need to test both the Mecca pact and their longstanding alliance with Washington.”

“They maintain a well-established relationship with the United States, and I doubt Washington can remain a passive observer,” Shiban continued. “Ultimately, the US will need to provide at least logistical, intelligence, and tactical support for Saudi Arabia.”

Diplomatic tightropes

Nevertheless, Washington currently exhibits little appetite for confronting the Houthis directly.

According to reports on the US news site Axios on Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) called US President Donald Trump twice the previous day to urge military action against the Houthis. On both occasions, the website reported, Trump refused.

Days later, speaking while on a trip to Dublin, Trump told reporters that the Houthis themselves had been in contact, assuring his administration they had no wish to fight US forces. A day later, US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that Washington was in direct talks with the Houthi rebels, as well as its allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

“It is probably unhelpful for the US to be speaking directly to the Houthis, and even more unhelpful for the US President to address this publicly,” said Elisabeth Kendall, president of Girton College, Cambridge, and an authority on Yemeni affairs.

“The Houthis crave political recognition and the international spotlight. Well, now they have it. These kinds of direct talks confer legitimacy. They also throw a spanner in the works of any potential multilateral approach,” she said, referring to previous talks with the Houthis where Oman served as mediator between the US and the rebels.

However, Saudi Arabia is also capable of confronting the Houthi forces directly, analysts point out. The kingdom still fields one of the region’s best-funded air forces and air-defence networks, has backed Yemeni government troops already fighting the Houthis in Taiz, and led a coalition against the group for years before the 2022 truce.

“It is misguided to believe that Saudi Arabia doesn’t have an option for deterrence and retaliation without US support,” Cinzia Bianco of the European Council on Foreign Relations said, adding that this could include calling upon its allies in the Mecca pact, but also acting unilaterally.

“In fact, Riyadh already experienced that US deterrence does not work as well as it did, so they would be looking for creative, asymmetric and hybrid ways to signal deterrence both at the military and political level.”

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