Rubio Set to Explore Trump-Xi Summit Prospects During Manila ASEAN Talks

By Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom

WASHINGTON, July 17 (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Manila this weekend for Asia-Pacific multilateral meetings, where he is anticipated to confer with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to lay groundwork for a possible September summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is also expected in Manila next week for gatherings of the 11-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) alongside Wang, as well as ministers from Japan, Australia, Canada and Britain.

The consultations occur amid global instability, with the conflict in Iran unsettling trade flows and generating economic strain throughout Asia.

The U.S. State Department said Rubio departs Sunday for Manila to join the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference, the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and the ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers’ Meeting.

Officials said Rubio will also hold talks with senior Indo-Pacific representatives during a trip running through next Thursday.

“The Secretary’s visit advances a clear U.S. priority: a free and open Indo-Pacific that delivers safety, security, and prosperity for the region and for the American people,” a statement noted, adding that Rubio will deepen the U.S. partnership with the Philippines.

While Washington and Beijing have not formally confirmed a Rubio-Wang encounter on the forum sidelines, such a meeting is broadly expected based on past ministerial practice.

Analysts believe a Rubio-Wang session would center on preparations for a second Trump-Xi summit this year after their May meeting. Trump has indicated Xi may visit the United States in late September.

U.S.-China relations have steadied under a temporary trade truce struck by Trump and Xi in October, yet profound disagreements persist, with many experts describing the dynamic as a new form of Cold War.

SOUTH CHINA SEA, MYANMAR ON THE AGENDA

The forum is also likely to examine friction in the strategic South China Sea, where multiple regional states dispute maritime territory.

Myanmar is another priority after ASEAN foreign ministers held informal talks last week with the country’s foreign minister — the first such direct meeting since a 2021 coup prompted ASEAN to exclude Myanmar’s leadership from its gatherings.

The meetings follow the 10th anniversary of a 2016 arbitral ruling that rejected the legal footing of China’s broad South China Sea claims, a decision Beijing refuses to accept.

Philippine Foreign Affairs spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial said ASEAN and China remain committed to negotiating a “substantive and effective” code of conduct for the waterway and voiced confidence in progress this year.

Harrison Pretat, a maritime security specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, expects Rubio to restate U.S. criticism of Chinese conduct in the South China Sea but in measured terms given other administration priorities.

“He will also not want that to completely derail his talks with Wang Yi,” he said, “so I would expect a calibrated approach rather than an attempt to really hammer Beijing. I think China will likewise want to state their position and move on to other things — but there is always room to be surprised.”

CSIS Southeast Asia expert Andreyka Natalegawa said a probable topic is Southeast Asian scam centers, which the Trump administration estimates cost Americans billions annually.

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