Russia Holds Parliamentary Election Amid Prolonged Ukraine Conflict

Holding a parliamentary election in Russia is difficult, even when the result seems predetermined.

Four and a half years of full-scale war with Ukraine have severely strained Russia’s economy and politics. Enemy drone swarms have caused extensive damage to oil refineries and logistics networks, and the populace, no longer viewing the conflict as remote, is growing increasingly anxious.

United Russia, the dominant Kremlin party, is expected to retain its commanding hold on the State Duma, aided by a handful of pro‑Putin allies. Nevertheless, authorities have tightened oversight of this first wartime parliamentary vote since the 2022 full‑scale invasion.

In the lead‑up to the three‑day voting that commenced Friday in Russia’s Far East, the Kremlin suppressed even minor dissent. The sole party that openly opposed the war was struck from the ballot, and several anti‑war politicians have been jailed or driven into exile.

For the first time, residents of the four Ukrainian territories annexed by Moscow after the invasion are eligible to vote. Kyiv has denounced the election as unlawful.

Although the outcome is all but certain and Putin’s dominance faces no imminent challenge, analysts contend the Kremlin views the vote as a crucial means to rally public backing for the war and lend legitimacy to its actions.

Putin declared, “Your choice and resolve will once again show that millions stand with our troops, that we are a united people bound by shared values, historical memory, and love for the Motherland,” in a pre‑election address.

A summer of Ukrainian long‑range drone strikes brought the realities of the war to millions of Russians.

These attacks worsened economic woes; after an early surge from heavy military spending, the economy has slipped into stagnation. To curb the swelling budget deficit, the government raised taxes and expanded domestic borrowing.

Strikes on Russian oil refineries triggered a severe fuel shortage that peaked in June, briefly eased, then resurfaced in August.

Compounding the hardship, a wave of assaults targeted warehouses belonging to online retailers Wildberries and Ozon, depriving hundreds of thousands of individual sellers of their goods and sending shockwaves through the economy.

Taken together, these factors soured public sentiment. Polls showed a slight decline in Putin’s approval rating, which, while still high, fell from 87 % in September 2025 to 76 % in August according to the independent Levada Center.

Even certain senior figures within Russia’s elite have voiced their dissatisfaction openly.

Andrei Klepach, chief economist of state‑owned VEB.RF, warned of looming internal unrest.

He warned, “We cannot prevail in this war of attrition; our costs are rising, and I am nearly certain a social crisis looms.”

Klepach was removed from his post the day after his remarks appeared.

Putin conceded that the strikes caused considerable harm but maintained that the economy could withstand them, claiming Ukraine had opened a “Pandora’s box” that would provoke massive retaliation.

Russia escalated missile and jet‑powered drone strikes on Kyiv and other cities, taking advantage of Ukraine’s limited defensive interceptors. Moscow also intensified its barrage on Black Sea ports, hindering Ukrainian grain and agricultural exports—a vital revenue stream.

Amid the escalation, concerns grew that the Kremlin might be contemplating a large‑scale mobilization.

A 2022 partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists drove hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee abroad, destabilizing the home front. Since then, the Kremlin has depended on volunteers, offering relatively high pay and benefits, though military analysts warn that volunteer enlistment has dwindled even as casualties mount.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly alleged that the Kremlin is planning a post‑election mobilization, a claim Putin dismissed as nonsense.

During a September 5 meeting with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, followed by a call with President Donald Trump, Putin asserted that Russia holds the battlefield advantage, indicating he will maintain maximalist demands in any peace negotiations.

In July, the Central Election Commission approved 11 parties for the parliamentary ballot, among them Yabloko—the sole party openly opposing the war.

Weeks later, however, Russia’s Supreme Court struck Yabloko from the ballot, acting on an appeal from the nationalist Motherland party, which equated the party’s anti‑war position with an attempt to violate Russia’s territorial integrity.

Kremlin observers characterized the decision as evidence of internal government friction: some officials sought a token opposition to boost turnout, while others feared Yabloko’s participation would invite open war criticism and destabilize the political landscape.

“The risk that the campaign would devolve into a battle over peace versus war—essentially a dispute about the conflict—was considerable, and this was never part of the plan,” said Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

In June, Maxim Kruglov, deputy chairman of Yabloko and former Moscow city council member, was convicted of disseminating false military information and sentenced to seven years in prison.

Last month, a Pskov regional court found Yabloko member Lev Shlosberg guilty of speaking out against the war, imposing a sentence of more than eleven years.

Half of the Duma’s 450 seats are allocated to parties via party‑list voting, while the remainder are decided in single‑district contests. Yabloko was excluded from the party‑list ballot.

Subsequently, officials systematically barred most individual Yabloko candidates from competing in single‑district races for the Duma and regional legislatures.

Liberal politician and war critic Boris Nadezhdin, who challenged Putin in the 2024 presidential race, fled Russia last month after being labeled a “foreign agent” and barred from office, fearing imprisonment.

United Russia, which holds more than two‑thirds of the Duma’s seats, is expected to keep its grip on the lower house despite war weariness and a deteriorating economy. Some Russian sources suggest the Kremlin has modestly lowered its target for United Russia but anticipates the party will retain full parliamentary control.

“United Russia may be permitted to slip slightly so its reported results align more closely with its actual performance,” remarked Mark Galeotti, head of Mayak Intelligence, adding that the Kremlin will guarantee the party remains absolutely dominant in the Duma.

One objective of the vote is to stage a “legitimizing ritual” that creates the impression of broad public backing for the Kremlin,” he noted.

Other participants in the so‑called systemic opposition—the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, and A Just Russia Party, all of which align with Putin’s stance and strongly support the war—are projected to keep their seats in parliament.

While Ukrainian strikes have fueled widespread anxiety, they may also spur calls for a harder response against Kyiv—provided the public does not have to participate directly—according to Galeotti in a podcast.

Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro‑Advisory Ltd., observed that although Ukrainian attacks have dented public morale, they pose no imminent danger to the Kremlin’s political dominance.

“There has been a ‘rally‑around‑the‑flag’ effect since the conflict began, and opinion polls consistently register a very high level of support,” he added.

While the outcome is foreordained, Weafer stressed that the Kremlin values the public narrative—and especially voter turnout—as key to asserting broad backing for its actions.

(FRANCE 24 with AP)

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