Russia’s Sahel Strategy: Is Protecting Rogue Allies Outpacing the Fight Against Extremism?

Niger’s government is currently confronting a dual crisis: extremist militant organizations attacking the state and internal grievances within the armed forces tasked with combating them. While the Africa Corps may have helped stabilize the latter recently, it has yet to address the former.

Unlike the Wagner mercenaries, whose private military company status afforded Moscow a degree of plausible deniability, the Africa Corps operates as a distinctly explicit instrument of the Russian state.

“The fundamental purpose of the Africa Corps is to consolidate power back under the authority of the Russian Ministry of Defence,” Boswall noted.

Officially, these forces are deployed to assist Sahel governments in their fight against Islamist militant groups.

However, dissidents contemplating actions against military administrations elsewhere in the Sahel must now account for the presence of Russian forces in their strategic calculations.

Despite the ongoing difficulty in containing jihadist insurgencies, observers do not anticipate Africa Corps withdrawing from the Sahel in the near future. Maintaining these governments in power safeguards Russia’s strategic interests.

“Wagner—and now the Africa Corps—has always maintained a highly transactional interest in Africa,” Boswall remarked.

“If they can secure mineral resources in exchange for providing protection and defense, they will. We observed this with gold in Mali, and in Niger, uranium appears to be the primary resource that Africa Corps is safeguarding.”

Analysts suggest that Russia also benefits from hosting allied governments that can support it in international forums.

“Possessing an international coalition of supportive nations provides Russia with significant diplomatic credibility,” Boswall explained.

Similar to Mali and Burkina Faso, Tiani’s administration has largely derived its legitimacy from the rhetoric of sovereignty, pan-Africanism, and liberation from former colonial powers.

All three governments ordered French troops to depart, established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), and subsequently withdrew from the West African regional bloc, Ecowas, framing the new alliance as a declaration of regional independence.

Some analysts view this stance as contradictory to its increasing reliance on Africa Corps.

“The military governments maintain that they have chosen Russia entirely on their own terms,” Ochieng stated.

“Russia is perceived as a partner that respects that sovereignty, contrasting with their previous partnerships with France, the EU, and, to some extent, the United States.”

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