SanDisk Tops S&P 500 in First Half 2026; Nvidia Positioned for Second-Half Breakout

Key Points

The S&P 500 has posted a solid gain of nearly 10% in the first half of 2026. Should this momentum persist, the index is on track to exceed its typical 10% annualized return. However, performance among individual components has diverged dramatically.

SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) leads the index with a surge of approximately 800%, while Intuit sits at the bottom, down roughly 60%. This wide dispersion raises the question of which names will lead in the second half of the year.

An examination of the drivers behind SanDisk’s ascent and the potential for a turnaround in another major component follows.

Image source: Getty Images.

SanDisk Benefits from Acute Memory Chip Shortage

The dominant market theme remains the artificial intelligence (AI) data center build-out, fueling demand across semiconductors and infrastructure. This expansion has strained several supply chains, but the most acute shortage is in memory chips.

The memory industry lacks the capacity to absorb the current demand wave, causing prices to escalate sharply. SanDisk, as a key supplier, has been a primary beneficiary of these dynamics. Industry forecasts suggest the supply-demand imbalance will persist through 2026 and into 2027, leaving substantial runway for further gains. Consequently, SanDisk’s strong first-half performance does not preclude continued leadership for the remainder of the year.

Nvidia Could Emerge as a Second-Half Leader

While Intuit’s struggles are unlikely to reverse dramatically, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) presents a compelling case for second-half outperformance. Despite its status as the world’s largest company by market capitalization, the stock has gained only 5% year-to-date, suggesting significant latent potential.

The investment thesis rests on the continuation of the AI infrastructure build-out through 2026 and into 2027. Current valuation metrics indicate that little future growth beyond 2026 is priced into the stock. Nvidia currently trades at 21.5 times forward earnings, in line with the broader S&P 500.

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

Historically, Nvidia has frequently exited years trading at 40 times forward earnings or higher. A reversion to that mean would imply a doubling of the share price. Even absent a full multiple expansion, a forward multiple of 15 times estimated 2027 earnings represents a modest valuation for a company of Nvidia’s growth trajectory.

Regardless of whether it claims the top performance spot, Nvidia is positioned to rank among the index’s leaders for the remainder of 2026 and warrants consideration for capital allocation.

Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intuit and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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