SECO has upgraded Switzerland’s sport‑adjusted GDP growth outlook for 2026, raising the projection from 0.9% to 1.7% after a solid 1.5% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in the second quarter. The 2027 forecast remains steady at 1.6%.
The acceleration is largely driven by a surge in foreign trade and strong first‑half activity. Roughly half of the Q2 expansion came from volatile chemicals and pharmaceuticals output, while exports received a notable boost. The projected contribution of foreign trade to 2026 growth was revised upward from –0.2 percentage points to +0.8 points, and goods‑export growth swung from a projected –0.7% to +1.5%. The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc has supported export‑sensitive sectors, though private consumption is improving more gradually, moving from a 1.2% to a 1.3% growth rate.
Despite the higher growth outlook, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is not expected to adopt a more hawkish stance immediately. SECO kept its inflation forecast unchanged at 0.6% for both 2026 and 2027, while the unemployment rate is projected to edge down to 3.0% in 2027 from 3.1% this year. Technical assumptions for the SARON rate remain at 0.0% in 2026 and 0.2% in 2027, reflecting a neutral policy outlook. Key risks to the franc include prolonged energy‑price pressures, trade uncertainties, and potential financial‑market turbulence that could reignite safe‑haven demand.
Data summary
Headline forecasts
| Indicator | Sep forecast | Jun forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 GDP, sport‑adjusted | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| 2027 GDP, sport‑adjusted | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 2026 GDP, unadjusted | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| 2027 GDP, unadjusted | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 2026 CPI inflation | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 2027 CPI inflation | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 2026 unemployment rate | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 2027 unemployment rate | 3.0% | 3.0% |
2026 forecast components
| Component | Sep forecast | Jun forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Private consumption | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Government consumption | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Construction investment | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Fixed assets and software investment | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Goods exports | 1.5% | -0.7% |
| Services exports | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| Full‑time‑equivalent employment | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Final domestic demand contribution | 1.1pp | 0.9pp |
| Foreign trade contribution | 0.8pp | -0.2pp |
External and monetary assumptions
| Assumption | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Global demand growth | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Eurozone GDP growth | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| German GDP growth | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Brent crude, USD/barrel | 91.0 | 80.1 |
| SARON | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Swiss 10‑year bond yield | 0.4% | 0.6% |
SECO’s forecast was finalized on September 8. SARON figures are technical assumptions, not an explicit SNB policy forecast.
Key takeaways
- SECO raised its sport‑adjusted 2026 GDP forecast from 0.9% to 1.7%, driven primarily by stronger first‑half activity and a sharp rebound in foreign trade.
- Approximately half of the Q2 1.5% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion stemmed from volatile chemicals and pharmaceuticals output, tempering the overall momentum.
- Foreign‑trade contributed the largest revision, with its projected contribution shifting from –0.2pp to +0.8pp; goods‑export growth swung from –0.7% to +1.5%.
- The weaker Swiss franc is supporting export‑sensitive industries, though renewed geopolitical or financial stress could revive safe‑haven demand for CHF.
- Inflation remains subdued at 0.6% for both 2026 and 2027, limiting near‑term policy implications from the growth upgrade.
- SECO anticipates a second‑half correction, citing energy‑price pressures, US tariff policy, and potential financial‑market disruptions as primary downside risks.
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