David Schoenfield
Welcome to September! The MLB regular season is hurtling toward its conclusion, and the playoff picture is coming into sharp focus. Can you believe we’re already here? Cast your mind back to Opening Day—Paul Skenes struggled through the first inning thanks to some costly defense from Oneil Cruz behind him. (The New York Mets never quite recovered from that setback.) Meanwhile, Garrett Crochet delivered six scoreless innings for the Boston Red Sox, Jacob Misiorowski racked up 11 strikeouts across five frames in what proved to be a preview of his dominant campaign, and Tarik Skubal showcased his excellence with six dominant innings for the Detroit Tigers.
The Opening Day starting rotations tell the story of just how unpredictable a baseball season can be. Skubal, Freddy Peralta, Jose Soriano, and Kevin Gausman have all been traded during the campaign. Hunter Brown, Nathan Eovaldi, and Zac Gallen have all spent time on the injured list, though Brown has since returned. Crochet, Nick Pivetta, and Cole Ragans have missed most of the season due to various injuries. The Chicago White Sox dropped a 14-2 decision to Misiorowski’s team on Opening Day, with Shane Smith getting the start; Smith made three appearances before being demoted to the minors, yet the White Sox have emerged as the season’s most stunning surprise package.
Much has shifted since the campaign began, and plenty remains to be decided before the postseason gets underway. Here’s our ranking of the six playoff races that will dominate the final month of regular-season action—and no, the American League wild-card scramble, with its .500 teams battling for the final spot, didn’t make the cut. Neither did the National League Central or West divisions, where both first-place clubs possess better than 96% odds of clinching their respective titles, according to FanGraphs projections.
We’ll begin with a race that defies conventional division boundaries since it involves clubs from three different divisions, yet it may be the most consequential playoff battle to monitor throughout September.
1. National League Race for Top Two Seeds
The Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Dodgers are locked in a fierce battle for the National League’s best record. The club that finishes in third place will be forced into the dreaded wild-card series—a best-of-three showdown where anything can derail a season.
That’s a three-game elimination format to keep your championship aspirations alive. While anything can happen in any playoff series, upsets become far more likely in the wild-card format. Since the best-of-three format debuted in 2022, there have been 16 wild-card series—and despite playing all games on their home diamond, the higher seed has managed just a 7-9 record. Among the most stunning upsets: the 89-win San Diego Padres toppling the 101-win Mets in 2022, and the 90-win Texas Rangers eliminating the 99-win Tampa Bay Rays in 2023.
Beyond the inherent randomness of a short series, the No. 3 seed faces another disadvantage: after deploying your top three starting pitchers and potentially exhausting the bullpen, you must then face the No. 2 seed, which has had the luxury of setting up its rotation. These clubs are极度渴望 to secure one of those coveted top two seeds.
Key trend: Since late July, the Dodgers have faced five series against teams with winning records and lost every single one—going 0-3 against the Red Sox, 0-3 against the Chicago Cubs, 1-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 1-3 against the Brewers, and 0-3 against the Braves. Running the numbers, that’s a 2-14 record against quality opponents over the past month. The rotation is largely healthy again, with the notable exception of Shohei Ohtani, making the offensive struggles all the more concerning. Los Angeles ranked 21st in the majors in OPS during August and averaged merely 2.9 runs per game in those contests against winning clubs.
The silver lining for the Dodgers is that their September slate is the most favorable among the three contenders, featuring only two series against teams with winning records (the Miami Marlins and Padres). However, both the Brewers and Braves hold the tiebreaker advantage over Los Angeles, meaning the Dodgers must post the superior record to finish ahead of either rival.
2. American League Central Race
Alright, this doesn’t quite compare to the legendary 1978 AL East or 1993 NL West battles. Nevertheless, the Chicago White Sox enter September holding a three-game advantage over the Cleveland Guardians, pursuing what would be one of the most improbable division championships in baseball history—or perhaps the most improbable ever. Even in a division that was considered weak entering the season, FanGraphs gave the White Sox just a 0.5% chance of winning the AL Central. ESPN’s projections were even more pessimistic.
Those odds fail to capture the remarkable nature of a turnaround from 102 defeats to a division crown. No team has ever won a division title the year after losing 100 games—and let’s not forget that the White Sox also set the modern record with 121 losses in 2024. The 2016-17 Twins improved from 103 losses to 85 wins and a wild-card berth, while the 2023-24 Royals went from 106 defeats to 86 wins and a wild card. The White Sox are aiming to surpass both comebacks while securing an actual division championship.
Key trend: The White Sox posted a 14-14 record in August despite their rotation compiling a 6.21 ERA—only the Athletics and Colorado Rockies had worse starting-pitching ERAs during the month. Trade-deadline acquisition Luis Castillo has struggled, going 1-1 with a 6.45 ERA across five starts with Chicago, failing to complete five innings in four of those outings while surrendering seven home runs in just 22⅓ frames. Sean Burke had been exceptional all season but may be hitting a wall, walking eight batters in his most recent start and permitting four runs in two previous appearances. Davis Martin is on the injured list due to a blister issue and has gone 0-2 with an 8.03 ERA over six starts since the All-Star break.
The offense has kept the team competitive, though manager Will Venable has faced challenges navigating the early innings of games.
3. American League East Race
The New York Yankees enjoyed a solid August. The Rays had an even better one, expanding their lead from 2½ games at the month’s outset to 4½ games after posting an 18-10 record. They completed a remarkable road trip early in the month, going 9-0 against the Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners, and Athletics—the first unbeaten road trip of three or more series in franchise history, and just the 13th road trip of 9-0 or better in the majors since 1900.
Tampa Bay’s starting rotation continues to excel. All-Star Drew Rasmussen led the way in August, going 5-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Ian Seymour has transitioned from reliever at the season’s start to bulk reliever to full-time starter, striking out over 30% of the batters he faced in August. He has provided valuable depth, as has trade acquisition Freddy Peralta. Consider these strikeout-to-walk ratios for the month:
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Rasmussen: 37-to-8
Seymour: 48-to-4
Nick Martinez: 22-to-2
Peralta: 20-to-6
Shane McClanahan: 12-to-3 (after an IL stint)
Those numbers get the job done. Overall, Rays starters ranked sixth in the majors in strikeout rate during August and led the league in lowest walk rate, posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.35—comfortably ahead of the Dodgers’ 3.52, which ranked second in the month.
But the Yankees’ rotation is also rolling. New York posted a 2.80 ERA during the month, third-best in the majors behind the Los Angeles Angels (a surprise development) and Marlins. Max Fried has returned after missing a couple of weeks with a left elbow injury, and Carlos Rodon has made three starts since coming off the IL. The Yankees are finally able to deploy Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Fried, Rodon, and Will Warren simultaneously. (Ryan Weathers landed on the IL due to a forearm flexor strain following his August 22 start.)
The clubs have one remaining series against each other—four games at Yankee Stadium during the season’s final week—part of a demanding September schedule for the Rays that includes matchups with the Braves and concludes with 10 games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Philadelphia Phillies.
Key trend: Even after plating 16 runs on Sunday, the Yankees’ offense continues to sputter, ranking 19th in the majors in runs scored during August (the Rays placed fourth). Luis Garcia Jr. has proven to be a crucial acquisition, hitting .292/.340/.506 with five home runs since joining the Yankees, leading the club in OPS during the month. Trent Grisham rediscovered his power stroke with seven homers in August, but the team hit only .231 for the month as Ben Rice (.184, .641 OPS), Heliot Ramos (.148, .576 OPS), and Cody Bellinger (.257, .642 OPS) all struggled.
In other words, this division race may ultimately hinge on how quickly Aaron Judge returns from injury, which remains projected for the second week of September.
4. National League East Race
Yes, this is a compelling race. The Braves’ advantage over the Phillies has dwindled from 9.5 games on August 12 to just 4 games—and the clubs still have seven games remaining against each other.
The Phillies’ offense wasn’t playoff-caliber through the first four months, ranking 23rd in the majors in OPS through July. However, it came alive in August as Philadelphia posted a 21-7 record, averaging 5.25 runs per game—third most in the majors. Bryce Harper has been locked in, hitting .333/.496/.573 with 31 walks drawn. Alec Bohm hit .327 while Bryson Stott posted a .409 on-base percentage. Newcomer Luis Arraez has hit .283 with 12 RBIs across 25 games, though that overstates his offensive contribution—he’s drawn just two walks for a .293 OBP (though he’s also struck out only three times in 103 plate appearances). The Phillies are finally receiving contributions from players beyond Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
What remains uncertain: The Phillies have fluctuated wildly all season based on their schedule. August featured an easier stretch, with just one series against a winning team—the barely-.500 Marlins. September brings those seven games against the Braves plus a season-ending homestand against the Brewers and Rays. On the season, Philadelphia is 51-30 against teams under .500 and 27-30 against clubs at .500 or better. They’ll likely need to win at least five of those seven games against Atlanta to have a realistic shot at the division title.
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Key trend: The Braves, meanwhile, delivered one of the most impressive series performances of their season last week, sweeping the Dodgers. Ha-Seong Kim delivered the walk-off single (his first hit since June) in Game 2, and Chris Sale closed it out with a dominant 1-0, 11-strikeout shutout in the finale. Sale has been Atlanta’s most consistent starter all season, but the rotation was excellent in August overall, posting a 2.97 ERA. Tyler Mahle was an under-the-radar deadline acquisition and has gone 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA across five starts with the Braves. Bryce Elder had two rough starts in August but also permitted just one run in three of his six outings.
Like Philadelphia, Atlanta’s offense has been inconsistent—they ranked 27th in the majors in runs per game during August yet still went 17-11. The starting pitching must carry the load in September. And keeping Sale healthy while avoiding the late-season regression he experienced in 2024 will be critical.
5. National League Wild-Card Race
This scramble for the final wild-card spot has been entertaining, with the Padres reclaiming the position over the Diamondbacks by half a game on Monday, while the Marlins sit four games back. San Diego closed the month by dropping two of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates, then getting swept by the Rays. Nevertheless, the Padres are 25-17 since the All-Star break as an offense that ranked near the bottom in runs for most of the season has finally awakened. Since the break, San Diego ranks fourth in the majors in OPS, third in runs per game, and tied for seventh in home runs, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill each slugging 12 homers. Only Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit more home runs since the All-Star break.
But who has nearly matched the Padres’ 4.98 runs per game since the All-Star break? The Diamondbacks, averaging .488 runs per game. It’s been a collective effort, with nine players posting an OPS above .750, including rookie outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt and trade-deadline acquisition Lars Nootbaar. Gabriel Moreno, who should be on track for a top-10 MVP finish, has been clutch, hitting .307 with 35 RBIs in 39 second-half games. The Diamondbacks went 7-6 after Ketel Marte’s absence in Boston, so that disruption hasn’t sent the team into a tailspin—and Marte returned to action on Monday, going 1-for-3 with a walk in a 2-1 loss to the Phillies.
The rotation remains somewhat inconsistent, but Eduardo Rodriguez continues to be the anchor, recording scoreless performances in his past two starts and victories over the Braves and Dodgers in his two starts prior.
Key trend: It may be just a temporary blip, but Mason Miller allowed home runs in consecutive appearances—his first two homers of the season—taking the loss in a 1-0 game against the Pirates on August 25 and then blowing a save in an eventual loss to the Rays on Sunday. The bullpen also surrendered a 6-3 lead in the seventh inning against the Rays on Saturday. The Padres and Diamondbacks have one series remaining against each other—a three-game set in San Diego to close the season. The season series is tied.
6. American League West
The rest of the division should hang their heads in shame if they allow a declining Houston Astros squad with a problematic rotation to steal this division title. Indeed, owner Jim Crane is so displeased with their barely-.500 record that general manager Dana Brown was dismissed on August 24, while manager Joe Espada received no job security beyond this season, when his contract expires.
Nevertheless, the Astros may win this division anyway because the Rangers and Mariners continue to stumble over themselves. The Rangers went 13-15 in August while the Mariners were even worse, posting an 11-16 record while being outscored by an astonishing 74 runs, losing games by margins of 22-0, 19-3, 11-0, 8-0, and 7-0. The month concluded with Seattle blowing an 8-5 eighth-inning lead against the Red Sox on Monday, with the tying run scoring after Julio Rodriguez slipped in the outfield, turning a single into a triple. Houston wasn’t much better during the month but did finish by taking two of three on the road against both the Yankees and Mets, then winning the series opener on Monday against the White Sox.
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The Astros, of course, possess one enormous advantage over the Rangers and Mariners: Yordan Alvarez, who continues to lead the AL in all three Triple Crown categories. He did slow down in August with just two home runs as Houston averaged 4.22 runs per game—not great, but still superior to the Rangers (3.71) and Mariners (3.52). Indeed, three of the five lowest-scoring teams in August were AL West clubs: the Rangers, Angels, and Mariners. The two worst pitching staffs belonged to the Athletics and Mariners. That’s correct—the Mariners scored the fewest runs per game during the month and allowed the most runs per game.
Key trend: The Houston bullpen, or at least the back end of it, might finally be heating up at the right moment. Josh Hader has been outstanding all season since returning from the IL, pitching 14⅓ scoreless innings in August while permitting just four hits. AJ Blubaugh, Bryan Abreu, Tatsuya Imai, and Steven Okert were all excellent as well, combining for a 1.19 ERA and .162 average allowed during the month. If those late-game relievers maintain this level of performance, the Astros should hold on and capture their eighth AL West title in 10 years.
