Silver (XAG/USD) hovered near $66.20 on Friday, marking a 1.18% loss for the session, after regaining a portion of its steep decline that followed the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. The metal initially slipped to an intraday low of $64.74 as better‑than‑expected US employment figures lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, only to see buyers re‑enter as the initial market shock faded.
The US economy created 162,000 jobs in August, crushing the consensus forecast of a 56,000 rise. July’s reading was adjusted to a gain of 21,000 from an earlier reported loss of 23,000, while June’s payroll growth was revised up to 31,000 from 20,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, matching expectations.
The robust employment data sparked a swift repricing across markets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to 99.36 after the release, while the 10‑year US Treasury yield approached the 4.81% level.
These moves pressured silver, since a stronger dollar makes the metal pricier for foreign buyers, and higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets.
Yet both the dollar and yields soon lost steam. The DXY pulled back to around 99.10, and the 10‑year yield slipped toward 4.77%, allowing XAG/USD to recover more than $1 from its low.
The jobs report also reshaped expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows roughly a 60% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate increase at the September 15‑16 gathering, up from about 50% prior to the NFP release.
The solid employment picture also raises the stakes for next week’s US inflation releases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) could be pivotal for the Fed after Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that the September decision will depend on August inflation data.
Waller remarked that he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation” and that the current rate stance could return inflation to the Fed’s 2% goal. He cautioned, though, that hotter‑than‑expected August inflation could prompt him to consider raising rates.
Consequently, silver is caught between renewed expectations of tighter US monetary policy and the waning initial dollar and yield spike. While the strong NFP data keeps the metal under pressure on Friday, the pullback from post‑release peaks in the dollar and yields enables XAG/USD to recover a sizable chunk of its early losses.
XAG/USD technical analysis
In the one‑hour chart, XAG/USD sits at $66.35. The short‑term tone is constrained, with the price lingering below the 200‑hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67.10 and barely above the 100‑hour SMA at $65.73, indicating a fragile consolidation beneath heavier overhead pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.22 is near neutral, suggesting that momentum has eased after the recent pullback and leaving the metal susceptible to further declines if sellers resume.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the 200‑hour SMA around $67.10, followed by a horizontal level near $67.50 where fresh selling could appear on an initial probe. To the downside, initial support is the 100‑hour SMA at $65.73, ahead of a more pronounced floor at $64.74 and then $63.32; a break below that would reinforce the bearish tilt and pave the way for a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
