OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the Singapore Dollar (SGD) weakened slightly as the US Dollar surged following the Jackson Hole symposium, yet the SGD maintains relative strength due to the S$NEER policy framework and robust domestic economic fundamentals. However, they warn that near-term SGD weakness may face challenges, with key resistance levels identified at 1.2740 and 1.2780/1.2790, while support ranges sit at 1.2680 and 1.2650.
Dollar Rebound Limits SGD Downside Potential
The SGD depreciated alongside the broader USD rally after Jackson Hole, though its resilience is underpinned by the S$NEER policy structure and stable local conditions. Analysts caution that further SGD weakness is unlikely to extend significantly in the short term, as a renewed downward trend would likely require softer US economic data and renewed USD weakness, alongside RMB movements influencing regional currency dynamics.
While bearish momentum on the daily chart eased, the RSI indicates a neutral stance, with recent technical signals tilting toward potential upside risks. Key resistance zones persist at 1.2740 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2023-2024 range) and 1.2780/90 (50% Fibonacci and 21-day moving average), while support levels are positioned at 1.2680 (76.4% Fibonacci) and 1.2650.
