Solid IPO Activity Still Likely into Early 2027

When we last refreshed the U.S. and Stockholm IPO Pulses in July —​using data through June —​we sought signs that an upswing in initial public offering activity would reassert itself as earlier disruption trends faded. Those disruptions, however, have not fully dissipated.

Renewed disruptions slow IPO activity in the third quarter

The collapse of the pause in the Iran conflict, which was pronounced in June, means no resolution is in sight, keeping energy prices elevated, thereby inflating inflation, alongside soaring demand for AI data‑center components.

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year shifted sharply from a roughly two‑thirds probability in June (averaged) to certainty, after the Fed added 25 basis points last month and projected another lift this year. The resulting revision in rate outlooks, coupled with a resilient economy, lifted the yield curve; 10‑year Treasury yields climbed from about 4.5 % in June to 5.3 % by September—the highest since 2002.

Higher interest rates feed directly onto every pillar of the Nasdaq IPO Pulse.

• The year-over-year change in the Fed funds rate is a clear increase and weighs downward on the index.
• Growth in the S&P 500 enterprise value‑to‑sales ratio has decelerated because tighter money conditions tighten the discount rate and erode existing debt values.
• Growth in the S&P 500 stock price has moderated modestly as higher rates act as a valuation drag despite solid earnings.

Recent slowing in Nasdaq IPO Pulse too minor to signal downturn

In response, the NASDAQ IPO Pulse settled to a six‑month low in September. Operating‑company IPOs also dipped to 26 for the third quarter, matching the count for the first quarter, which had been hampered by a mix of events — sudden supply‑chain strains, the “SaaSpocalypse,” a partial government shutdown, and renewed Iran tensions.

Chart 1: Nasdaq IPO Pulse down to six‑month low in September

Although the raw count of IPOs fell, the underlying capital raised in Q3 still demonstrated strength, underscoring that volume pressure has not materially altered the broader market sentiment.

Third‑quarter capital raise exceeded all of 2022, 2023 and 2024

While Q3 IPOs appeared quieter, the overall financing power of operating companies remained robust. Operating firms closed the quarter with $34 billion raised—more than the sum of capital deployed in any individual year from 2022 to 2024 combined. Even the first quarter of 2026, which also recorded 26 operating‑company IPOs, generated just $10 billion.

Chart 2: Despite dip in number of IPOs, third‑quarter capital raised reached $34 billion

Consequently, cumulative dollar‑valued IPOs over the three quarters amount to $146 billion, eclipsing the $141 billion benchmark reached in 2021. Forecasters anticipate additional historic issuances in Q4, potentially pulling totals beyond $170 billion if SPCEX and SKHY join the surge.

Stockholm IPO Pulse signals positive outlook into early 2027

The Stockholm indicator remains comfortably above its recent highs, pointing to sustained cyclical support into early 2027. IPO activity stayed strong, noting six new listings in Q3 compared to seven in Q2. By capital raised, the Stockholm segment posted €160 million in Q3 against €380 million in Q2, and the full‑year cash flow now surpasses the totals for 2022 and 2023.

Chart 3: Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse hovering near recent highs

Drivers of IPO activity supportive despite ongoing disruptions

Even with lingering macro pressures, both the U.S. and Swedish markets point toward healthy IPO performance through early 2027, provided broader economic conditions hold firm.

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