Southeast Asia Confronts a Rapid Decline in Birth Rates

In Manila’s shopping malls, young couples often push strollers across polished tiles, but many of the faces looking back are those of puppies, not babies. “Puppies in strollers… it breaks my heart,” says Rita Linda Dayrit, a grandmother and former president of the Pro‑Life Philippines Foundation. A devout Catholic, Dayrit opposes contraception and champions large families—a view that once aligned with the Philippines’ 1990s norm of four or more children per woman. Today, the nation’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.7, well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to keep the population stable.

“It’s our middle class,” Dayrit explains. “They are busy with careers, not having children and not getting married. Their values have changed.” Across Southeast Asia, birth rates are dropping faster than expected, extending a trend previously seen only in affluent, highly educated societies such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

Melanie Stetson Freeman/Staff/File

Children in a Tokyo daycare walk to a neighborhood park in 2002, all wearing matching hats.

Two‑thirds of the world’s population now lives in countries where birth rates are below replacement, including Muslim‑majority Malaysia and Turkey, Catholic‑dominant Brazil and the Philippines, and officially non‑religious China and Vietnam.

Thailand, a Buddhist‑majority nation of about 70 million, is experiencing perhaps the most striking decline. Recent data show a fertility rate of 0.9, even lower than Japan’s. The government has labeled the situation a “demographic crisis,” warning that “the sounds from the cradle are fading away.”

Tou Manomaiphibul, a factory manager in Bangkok, epitomizes the new mindset. He and his wife plan to have only one child, citing the high cost of private education—often more than $5,000 per year for primary grades. Younger Thai millennials, accustomed to a more comfortable lifestyle than their agrarian grandparents, fear that multiple children would jeopardize their economic security.

“To give a child a good life, you must save a lot of money from the time they’re born,” Tou says.

The drivers of declining birth rates are complex, but education for women consistently emerges as a key factor. Higher education leads many women to prioritize careers, delay marriage, and limit family size. In Thailand, a government‑affiliated poll found that nearly half of childless adults have no intention of having children.

Stefan M Prager/IMAGO/Reuters

A grandmother and her grandchild in Ko Bulone Le, Thailand, January 2026.

Sirada Krittayaruesiriwat, a Bangkok bank employee without children, notes that the stigma against child‑free women is waning. “I don’t catch any flak for my choice,” she says, explaining that her lifestyle—spending freely, sleeping late, and long gym sessions—doesn’t align with raising a toddler.

Thailand’s fertility rate now mirrors that of South Korea and Singapore and is only slightly lower than China’s. If the trend continues, the country could see its population shrink by half within two generations, with over half of residents aged 65 or older and children (under 14) comprising just 3 % of the population.

“It’s quite alarming,” remarks Piyachart Phiromswad, an economist at the Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration, Chulalongkorn University. He warns that Thailand may become one of the first developing nations to undergo such a profound demographic shift. Traditional policy tools—such as baby bonuses—have shown limited success in Japan, South Korea, and Scandinavia.

Piyachart advocates a comprehensive approach: encouraging citizens to remain active and healthy into their 60s, and implementing policies that support mid‑career training for older workers, not just incentives for younger families.

Thailand could serve as a bellwether for other middle‑income societies facing similar challenges. If it manages the transition effectively, it may offer a model for countries that cannot rely solely on government intervention.

The Philippines, with a fertility rate of 1.7, presents a paradox. While some nations view such a low rate as a crisis, leaders in Scandinavia and Singapore might envy it. Yet Dayrit feels increasingly out of step with reality.

“Nursing homes were once rare,” she reflects. “Now we have more facilities because if you only have two kids and they have different values—they’re busy with work, they like to travel—you end up in a nursing home.”

Dayrit is especially dismayed by young couples choosing pets over children. “We need voices to tell society that the world was made by God to be populated by people, not dogs and cats,” she says.

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