An anticipated El Niño drought, coupled with rising costs and dwindling humanitarian aid, is likely to exacerbate food insecurity and poverty across southern Africa in 2027. While South Africa’s robust grain harvest and water reserves provide some buffer, the region may still face heightened pressure on supplies and export capacities.
October holds special significance for global agricultural and food organisations. On the 16th, World Food Day is observed, commemorating the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945.
The day also offers nations an opportunity to assess their food security conditions, outline strategies to bolster resilience, and contribute to poverty reduction efforts in still‑impoverished countries.
This year’s World Food Day celebrations were notably different. Unlike previous years, when some countries reported declining poverty levels, the outlook for 2027 is cause for concern, especially across southern Africa.
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts
Many countries in the region confront rising costs due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which have driven up energy prices and disrupted supply chains. The looming El Niño drought in 2027 is set to compound these challenges, potentially pushing poverty rates higher across much of southern Africa.
The Food and Agriculture Organization already warns that the region may encounter conditions as severe or worse than the 2015‑16 drought.
In late June 2026, the Food and Agriculture Organization commented on the region’s recent droughts of 2015‑16 and the anticipated 2026‑27 drought, stating that the most recent El Niño cycle brought the region’s worst drought.
