Southern Primaries and Runoff Contests Set the Stage for 2024 Midterms

President Trump’s hold on the Southern Republican Party, where he has achieved his most notable successes by boosting candidates he endorses over those he views as disloyal, will be tested on Tuesday across three states holding primary or runoff contests featuring his endorsed candidates.

The headline contest occurs in Georgia, where Republican voters will select a nominee in a primary runoff to face Senator Jon Ossoff, once seen as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent heading into the midterms but who has emerged as a strong fundraiser and popular figure.

Georgia Republicans remain bruised by their 2021 and 2022 Senate defeats. Both contenders present themselves as the more electable alternative to Ossoff, with former President Trump issuing a late Sunday endorsement and Governor Brian Kemp emerging as a pivotal figure.

In deeply Republican Alabama, the G.O.P. primary runoff is all but certain to determine the race to succeed Senator Tommy Tuberville, who is eyeing a governor’s bid. Trump’s chosen candidate faces a surprisingly competitive contest against a former Navy SEAL running as an anti‑establishment outsider.

In the Oklahoma governor’s race, Trump has backed Mike Mazzei, a wealthy outsider who has invested roughly $11 million of his own funds. The crowded field, which also includes Attorney General Gentner Drummond, may advance to a runoff.

Will any Trump-backed candidates lose in the South?

Trump’s endorsement has carried significant weight in primary contests nationwide this year, especially in the South where he helped candidates he favored defeat incumbents such as Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, and Senator John Cornyn of Texas. Nevertheless, a few of his selected candidates face tight races on Tuesday.

In the Alabama Senate runoff, Trump has supported Representative Barry Moore, a three‑term congressman and long‑time loyalist, from the campaign’s early stages. However, the outsider bid of Jared Hudson, a former Navy SEAL, surged after his unexpected second‑place finish in the May primary.

A parallel insider‑versus‑outsider dynamic unfolds in Georgia, where Trump has long endorsed Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones for governor. Jones has run an aggressive, heavily funded campaign filled with negative television ads against Rick Jackson, a wealthy health‑care executive who embraces Trump’s policies despite not receiving the president’s endorsement.

The victor will meet Keisha Lance Bottoms in November. Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor, secured the Democratic nomination outright last month.

Will late Trump and Kemp endorsements matter in Georgia?

Trump issued a late Sunday endorsement in the Georgia Senate runoff, throwing his support behind Representative Mike Collins, a staunch immigration hard‑liner, over Derek Dooley, a lawyer and former football coach who maintains close ties to Governor Brian Kemp. By the time the endorsement arrived, early voting had already taken place for five days, and Collins has positioned himself as the MAGA‑aligned candidate, suggesting the endorsement may only reinforce existing voter preferences.

The situation differs in the Georgia governor’s race, where Kemp, bound by term limits, unexpectedly endorsed Jones on Sunday night over Jackson. Although Kemp had remained neutral for much of the campaign, focusing on supporting Dooley for the Senate race, the Jones campaign promptly highlighted the endorsement in a new advertisement the following day.

Who will Oklahoma Republicans choose to succeed Markwayne Mullin in the Senate?

Trump appointed Senator Markwayne Mullin as his homeland‑security secretary in March, creating a Senate vacancy in a reliably Republican state. Subsequently, Trump endorsed Representative Kevin Hern, granting him a clear advantage in a G.O.P. primary that also includes three other contenders.

Another member of Congress, Representative Stephanie Bice, had been weighing a Senate campaign but announced she would remain in the House after Trump’s endorsement of Hern.

Hern first entered the House in 2018 after a career as a McDonald’s franchisee. Governor Kevin Stitt, prohibited from seeking a third term this year, also chose not to run for the seat.

Will Georgia voters choose an election denier to run state elections?

Both Republicans competing to become Georgia’s next secretary of state — and thus oversee the state’s elections — align with the MAGA wing of the party. Vernon Jones, a former DeKalb County chief executive and former Democrat, has falsely claimed the 2020 presidential election was stolen, while State Representative Tim Fleming, a former aide to Kemp, has suggested irregularities warrants investigation.

The winner will face a November contest that could serve as a referendum on Georgia’s 2020 vote, a race both Kemp and current Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger have asserted Trump lost. Raffensperger ran for governor this year but did not reach the runoff; should Jones or Fleming assume office, they are likely to reshape the management of Georgia’s election infrastructure in markedly different directions.

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