Soybean Prices Drop as USDA Adjusts Argentina Output Forecast

Soybeans are trading with 5 to 9¼ cent weakness across most contracts on Thursday. The national average cash soybean price dropped 9¼ cents to $10.59¼. Soymeal futures rose by $1.00 to $1.40, while Soy Oil futures fell by 30 to 33 points.

USDA released updated 2025/26 bean export sales data, recording 211,292 metric tons (MT), midway through the anticipated 150,000 to 400,000 MT range for the week of June 4. This marked a 23.68% decline from the previous week but remained significantly higher than the same period last year. New crop sales totaled 141,500 MT, below estimates of 100,000 to 350,000 MT, reflecting a 41.77% drop from the prior week. Accumulated new crop sales now stand at 1.032 million MT, 7.69% below last year’s level at this time.

Soymeal sales reached 426,138 MT, within the 150,000 to 600,000 MT projected range. Bean oil sales totaled 824 MT, declining due to net reductions of 2,000 MT versus net sales of 15,000 MT.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) data showed old crop US stocks remaining steady at 340 million bushels (mbu), with a 20 mbu shift from exports to crush. New crop stocks held at 310 mbu.

Globally, Brazilian soybean production remained unchanged at 180 million tonnes (MT), while Argentina’s output increased by 2 MT to 50 MT. CONAB revised Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production estimate to 180.25 MT, a 0.12 MT increase. The Rosario Grains Exchange raised Argentina’s corn crop projection to 51.5 MT, up 1.5 MT from prior estimates.

World carryover stocks for 2025/26 rose 0.39 MT to 125.52 MT, driven by higher Argentine supplies. New crop stocks also increased marginally by 0.1 MT to 124.88 MT.

Price updates as of publication:
– July 26 Soybeans: $11.13¾ (down 9¼ cents)
– Nearby Cash: $10.59¼ (down 9¼ cents)
– August 26 Soybeans: $11.19½ (down 8¼ cents)
– November 26 Soybeans: $11.33¼ (down 5¼ cents)
– New Crop Cash: $10.66½ (down 6¼ cents)

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