Soybean Prices Drop Friday as USDA Updates Production Outlook

Soybean prices fell on Friday, erasing earlier Thursday gains, with midday declines of 20 to 30 cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price dropped 29.75 cents to $12.44 ¾. Soybean meal futures fell $3.20, while soybean oil prices slipped 192 points. Only one delivery was recorded overnight for September soybeans, including three for meal and 134 for bean oil, before the contracts expire on Monday.

The USDA’s monthly Crop Production report indicated a soybean yield of 52.8 bushels per acre, slightly above the August forecast and higher than the consensus estimate of 52.4 bushels per acre. Total production rose 16 million bushels to 4.535 billion bushels, with harvested acreage increasing by 100,000 acres to 85.881 million acres.

U.S. old‑crop soybean stocks remained steady at 325 million bushels this month. However, USDA projected carryout for the 2026/27 marketing year to be 310 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from the previous estimate, as export expectations were increased. The latest WASDE indicated that world ending stocks for 2025/26 rose 0.15 million metric tons to 125.27 million metric tons, while the new‑crop balance fell 0.19 million metric tons to 124.02 million metric tons.

Weekly export sales data released this morning recorded net cancellations of 175,309 metric tons for the old‑crop period ending September 3, aligning with forecasts of zero net cancellations up to 500,000 metric tons. New‑crop sales reached 2.637 million metric tons, surpassing the expected range of 1 to 2.6 million metric tons, with 672,381 metric tons rolled over from unshipped 2025/26 contracts.

Soybean meal sales for the week of September 3 totaled 42,552 metric tons for the 2025/26 marketing year and 284,535 metric tons for 2026/27, comfortably within the projected range of 150,000 to 950,000 metric tons. Bean oil sales were minimal at 83 metric tons, well below the estimated 0 to 12,000 metric tons.

On September 26, soybean prices were $12.96, a decline of 20 cents.

Nearby cash prices stood at $12.44 ¾, down 29.75 cents.

November 26 soybean futures traded at $13.02 ¾, down 29.5 cents.

January 27 soybean contracts were at $13.18, down 29.25 cents.

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