Soybeans Surge on Bullish USDA Supply-Demand Outlook

Soybean futures climbed 10 to 13.5 cents per bushel across most contracts by midday Friday, propelled by a USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that tightened the domestic balance sheet more than analysts anticipated. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price slipped 13.25 cents to $11.4425 per bushel, while soybean meal futures advanced $5.00 to $6.30 per ton and soybean oil futures rose 70 to 85 points per pound. No deliveries were issued against July soybean meal, though 11 were tendered for bean oil.

The USDA also confirmed a private export sale of 264,000 metric tons of 2026/27 crop soybeans to China via the daily flash sales system.

In the WASDE update, 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks were reduced by 10 million bushels to 330 million, driven by a 10 million bushel increase in export projections. New-crop 2026/27 ending stocks held steady at 310 million bushels, as a 40 million bushel production increase from higher acreage was offset by a 30 million bushel export boost.

Globally, 2025/26 South American production estimates were unchanged. However, 2026/27 world ending stocks fell 0.71 million metric tons to 124.17 million, reflecting a 0.19 million ton reduction in 2025/26 carryover and a 0.5 million ton increase in Brazilian exports.

Key midday quotes:

• July 2026 Soybeans: $11.8450, up 4.75 cents
• Nearby Cash: $11.4425, up 13.25 cents
• August 2026 Soybeans: $11.9125, up 13.5 cents
• November 2026 Soybeans: $11.9200, up 10.5 cents
• New Crop Cash: $11.2550, up 10 cents

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