S&P 500 Forex Outlook: Traders Watch NFP Data (Video)

Potential signal:

• I am buying a pullback anywhere near the 7440 level, with a stop at 7410, and a target of 7600.

The S&P 500 showed choppy movement on Wednesday, which is expected ahead of the Non‑Farm Payroll report.

The index has been volatile on Wednesday, reflecting the shortened U.S. trading week before the Independence Day holiday. The jobs data will be released on Thursday, and many market participants will be on leave on Friday.

Consequently, I anticipate a potential sell‑off during Thursday’s session, unless the United States publishes a significantly stronger jobs number. The consensus expectation is 114,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The actual figure may confirm existing expectations that the U.S. economy remains resilient, but a miss could trigger a short‑term pullback.

Technical Formations and Forward Targets

We are currently forming a pattern resembling a W‑shape, with the next likely target around 7,640, a level that previously acted as resistance. A decisive breakout above this zone could open the path toward 8,000, though such a move may take time.

After a strong rally into early June, the market has been consolidating. The recent compression suggests that a decisive move is imminent.

While it is still early to draw firm conclusions, a symmetrical or possibly an ascending triangle could be forming, with a breakout above the 7,600 zone acting as a key confirmation. I favor buying dips and have no interest in shorting at this stage.

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