SpaceX Enters Nasdaq-100 Index Despite Stock Decline as Passive Investors Anticipate Growth

Published On 7 Jul 20267 Jul 2026

SpaceX’s rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index is poised to drive substantial passive investment inflows, following the release of largely positive brokerage coverage by firms initiating analyst reports on the $2 trillion aerospace and satellite company.

The Elon Musk-led organization joined the index on Tuesday, marking one of the swiftest benchmark inclusions in history. This was made possible by Nasdaq’s revised criteria for newly public companies seeking entry into major indices, allowing SpaceX to meet eligibility requirements in just 15 trading days following its June 12 IPO.

The index addition creates an additional source of demand for SpaceX shares as funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 will be required to acquire holdings to align with the benchmark’s new composition.

Nevertheless, the company’s shares dropped 5.4% during the session, mirroring declines in other high-growth technology stocks such as Micron Technology amid concerns about AI sector sustainability.

“There’s nervousness about expectations being unrealistically high,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. He added, “I expect this volatility to persist until we see concrete earnings data.”

SpaceX carries a 1.34% weighting in the Nasdaq-100, according to LSEG data, significantly smaller than major constituents like Nvidia and Apple, which reflects its free-float-based calculation methodology.

Historically, companies face mandatory waiting periods before joining benchmarks like Nasdaq-100 or S&P 500, with S&P requiring four consecutive profitable quarters. SpaceX successfully lobbied Nasdaq to waive its standard rules for large-cap companies. However, S&P Global maintained its existing timeline, potentially delaying SpaceX’s inclusion in the S&P 500 by at least a year.

Newly initiated coverage from over a dozen brokerages, including IPO underwriters Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan, marked Wall Street’s first attempt to apply conventional valuation metrics to the company.

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“We view SpaceX as well-positioned to scale its competitive advantages across space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence sectors,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote, identifying three trillion-dollar market opportunities over a five-year outlook.

Analysts overwhelmingly cite Starship, SpaceX’s fully reusable next-generation rocket, as the linchpin of its growth trajectory. Projections from investment banks vary, with JP Morgan forecasting 5,000 annual Starship launches by 2031, Wells Fargo 4,600, Bernstein 3,500, and UBS over 1,500, contingent on reusability achievements.

Raymond James established a record $800 price target for SpaceX, characterizing the company as a potential once-in-a-generation infrastructure platform. The IPO opened at $135 per share.

Contrasting the bullish sentiment, MoffettNathanson, KeyBanc, and Argus Research assigned neutral ratings, while CFRA stands as the sole firm adopting a sell recommendation with a $115 price target.

Market participants are increasingly betting on SpaceX’s capacity to emerge as a hyperscale AI infrastructure provider, competing with OpenAI’s GPT models and Anthropic’s Claude through its Grok AI system. Investors also anticipate expansion of Starlink’s global satellite communications dominance, though long-term ambitions hinge on Starship’s operational success.

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“SpaceX holds distinct advantages in deploying AI infrastructure across terrestrial and orbital environments, positioning it as the premier ‘haloscaler’ for cost-effective compute distribution,” Deutsche Bank analysts explained.

With a $2 trillion market capitalization, SpaceX ranks as the sixth-largest U.S. company, and CEO Elon Musk has become the world’s first trillionaire. FTSE Russell recently added the stock to its U.S. indices, enabling exposure through funds like the iShares Russell 1000 ETF. S&P Global, however, declined to implement similar fast-track processes for its own indices.

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