SpaceX Shares Slip Back to $150 Opening Level — Outlook for the Coming Weeks

Key Points

• On its first trading day, SpaceX debuted at $150 per share.

• The share price surged past $225 in the initial days of trading before settling back to roughly 5% above the opening price.

• Two upcoming events in the next two months are expected to influence short‑term price volatility.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) began trading on June 12 at $150 per share. Early demand was so strong that the stock briefly reached an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16.

There appear to be two reasons for this decline, as well as two upcoming events that could drive meaningful short‑term price movements for the stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

The stock price falls as demand fades

Initial public offerings often experience a surge in the days following their debut, driven largely by market excitement. Investors, who have long followed these private ventures, rush to purchase shares to avoid missing out on potential gains comparable to those of companies such as Amazon or Nvidia.

After the initial excitement fades, the majority of interested buyers have already acquired shares, leading to a decline in active demand. With limited new buying pressure, the short‑term upward momentum wanes.

On June 22, SpaceX announced a $25 billion bond offering, raising concerns about the capital‑intensive nature of its expansion plans. The news alone precipitated a drop of more than 12%, with shares closing at $154.60.

What moves the SpaceX stock from here

In the coming two months, two catalysts could affect SpaceX’s share price. On July 7, the company will be included in the Nasdaq‑100 index, comprising the 100 largest non‑financial Nasdaq constituents. Inclusion will obligate index‑tracking mutual funds and ETFs to purchase SpaceX stock, potentially providing a short‑term price boost.

In August, SpaceX is slated to release its inaugural earnings report as a publicly listed entity. While the report may contain limited novel information given the recent IPO, market participants are likely to react vigorously to any disclosed results.

The release of the earnings report will also mark the conclusion of a lock‑up period, enabling insiders and early investors to begin selling a portion of their previously restricted shares.

SpaceX has instituted a staggered schedule for insider sales. Beginning on the second full trading day after the first earnings release, insiders may sell up to 20% of their eligible shares. If the share price climbs 30% or more above the IPO price — approximately $175.50 — they become eligible to sell an additional 10%.

While heightened volatility is expected over the next two months, the stock is unlikely to experience substantial directional moves; it may trade within a narrow range in the short term, which is of limited relevance for long‑term investors.

The longer‑term outlook hinges on SpaceX’s ongoing development of AI infrastructure, which could enable it to capture a share of the projected $26.5 trillion total addressable market for artificial intelligence.

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