SpaceX Slips Beneath IPO Level as Jeff Kilburg Outlines Rebound Options Strategy

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) launched its much-anticipated IPO at $135, opened at $150, and briefly surged to $225. The newly listed shares are now undergoing sharp price discovery, falling to $122 on Friday morning after Starship Flight 13 automatically aborted seconds before liftoff. With the stock down 45% from its record high and about 20% below its first IPO trading price, analyst Jeff Kilburg is using SPCX options to express a bullish view, leveraging elevated implied volatility to position for a recovery ahead of a possible launch attempt next week.

Amid pressure on the stock and heightened social media attention around Elon Musk’s wealth, options activity in SPCX has surged. Uncertainty around the Starship schedule has dramatically inflated implied volatility. The current fear priced into SPCX options may present an opportunity, particularly given a notable pricing asymmetry: put skew is exceptionally steep, making downside protection far more expensive than equidistant upside calls.

Trade: Bullish risk reversal
To exploit the richly priced downside options and position for a sharp rebound, Kilburg proposes a risk reversal financed by fading the put skew:
– Sold the 8/21/2026 SPCX $100 put for $3.75
– Bought the 8/21/2026 SPCX $150 call for $6

The spread costs $2.25 ($225 per one-lot spread) to open, with SPCX trading near $125 at execution. By selling the $100 put, he collects $3.75 and signals willingness to own shares at $100—a level already held via the Mango Growth ETF (GARY) following an anticipated retest of the $135 IPO price, a 25% discount. The premium subsidizes the $150 call, cutting net cost to $2.25. If SPCX rises above $152.25 at expiration, the trade offers uncapped upside. Extreme fear in the options chain reflects how traders are tactically approaching the newly public company.

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