Spain and Morocco’s Intricate Relations and Their Impact on Ceuta’s Migrant Crisis

Actor Javier Bardem speculated about Israeli involvement in the mass arrival of over 70,000 migrants from Morocco to Spain last month. Former Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene suggested the Republican Party orchestrated the surge, while others claimed King Mohammed VI of Morocco deliberately triggered the crisis as a geopolitical maneuver against Spain.

Experts assert no evidence supports state-sponsored coordination of the unprecedented migration to Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in North Africa. Both Spanish and Moroccan authorities attribute the influx—which resulted in approximately 90 migrant deaths before most withdrew—to a viral misinformation campaign by smugglers on social media.

Nevertheless, widespread speculation persists, driven by the deeply complicated historical and political relationship between Spain and Morocco. Analysts note that this complexity fuels diverse, often conspiratorial, interpretations of the event.

Spain occupied parts of Morocco during the 20th century, and many Moroccans continue to contest Spanish control over territorial enclaves like Ceuta. Despite this historical tension, the two nations maintain intricate economic, political, and geopolitical ties. Their governments hold divergent stances on key issues: they clash over Algeria, Israel, and U.S. policy, with Spain maintaining strained relations with Washington and Jerusalem while warming to Algiers, whereas Morocco views Algeria as a rival but seeks improved ties with Israel and the U.S.

“We are witnessing the simplification of a very complex reality,” said Pol Morillas, director of the Barcelona Center for International Affairs. “This is where various theories emerge.”

In an era marked by rising nationalism and misinformation, the Ceuta crisis has fueled extreme speculation, Morillas noted, calling it “a sign of the times.” He added that Spain-Morocco relations are generally managed smoothly, with Spain being Morocco’s primary European trading partner and Morocco supplying the largest number of legal migrants to Spain. Morocco typically prevents unauthorized border crossings, though experts acknowledge past instances where it leveraged migration for geopolitical advantage.

In 1975, during Francisco Franco’s final days, Morocco capitalized on Spanish weakness by sending 350,000 people and military forces into Western Sahara in the “Green March,” prompting Spain’s withdrawal. Ceuta residents, like retired political scientist Enrique Avila, note parallels to this historical event, feeling persistently threatened by Moroccan actions.

The Western Sahara conflict between Algerian-backed separatists seeking self-determination and Morocco, which claims historical sovereignty, further complicates relations. Spain historically maintained neutrality to balance ties with both nations.

In 2020, the Trump administration brokered Moroccan-Israeli normalization in exchange for recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara—a move Spain declined to mirror, even allowing a separatist leader medical treatment in Spain. Tensions intensified in 2021 when Morocco loosened Ceuta’s border controls to allow 10,000 migrants, seen in Madrid as punitive. Spain reversed its stance the following year, gaining Morocco’s favor but angering Algeria.

This year, Spain sought improved ties with Algeria for energy partnerships, potentially antagonizing Morocco. On July 20, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited Algeria for the first time in four years, days before the Ceuta surge occurred.

Some interpreted the timing as evidence of a Moroccan plot, though Moroccan experts questioned whether such a tragedy could be orchestrated. Ceuta’s leader, Juan Jesús Vivas, expressed skepticism: “You cannot hide 80,000 people in a trunk. I would have expected such a movement to be detected.”

Presidential advisor Haizam Amirah-Fernández noted that Morocco’s “calculated ambiguity” and global instability have made motives plausible. While Spain’s strained relations with Israel—criticized by Sánchez over Gaza—contrast with Morocco’s recent gestures toward Israel and the U.S., including naming a highway after Trump and discussing Gaza security roles, the influx has reignited debates. Israeli officials subtly highlighted Spain’s colonial history when criticizing its Gaza stance, further inflaming speculation. Despite official denials, fringe theories on both the far left and right frame the crisis as a manufactured geopolitical tool.

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