Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, said Friday that the crypto market has likely reached its cycle low, pointing to Bitcoin’s recent slide to around $59,000 as the trough of the latest downturn. The move marked a 53% decline from Bitcoin’s October all-time high of $126,000.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote in a note Friday, adding, “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle.”
At the time of the note, Bitcoin had rebounded to approximately $64,000, up about 5% over the previous week. Standard Chartered continues to forecast Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, a target the bank first laid out in February.
SpaceX listing may ease pressure on crypto liquidity
Kendrick identified the Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX as one of the key catalysts behind the shift. The company priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX on June 12.
Shares opened well above the IPO price, gaining roughly 20% on their first trading day. Kendrick said some of the recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs — totaling more than $5.72 billion since the second week of May, one of the steepest withdrawal periods since their launch — were likely driven by investors selling crypto exposure to raise funds for SpaceX allocations. With the IPO now trading, he said that selling pressure could begin to ease.
Demand for SpaceX-linked exposure was already visible in crypto markets before the debut. On Hyperliquid, perpetual contracts tied to SpaceX, or SPCX, had built more than $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour trading volume, making it the platform’s eighth-largest asset by activity.
Iran remains a key uncertainty
The second factor Kendrick highlighted is geopolitical. A possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement ahead of next week’s G7 summit could ease pressure on global oil supplies, which have remained constrained since hostilities in the Middle East intensified.
Lower oil prices could help bring down elevated U.S. Treasury yields, which have weighed on risk assets such as crypto by making government debt more attractive to investors.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 1.5% on Friday to roughly $85–$86 per barrel, but the outlook remains uncertain. The peace deal narrative is still fragile.
President Trump said Thursday that a breakthrough could come over the weekend, but later posted on Truth Social that the publicly announced deal was not what had been agreed. He warned Iranian officials to “get their act together,” adding further uncertainty to the macroeconomic picture.
Three Bitcoin signals to watch
Kendrick outlined three signals that could confirm his outlook. First, he is watching for Strategy to announce another Bitcoin purchase on Monday, noting that CEO Michael Saylor’s buying activity has often served as a useful indicator of institutional demand.
Second, Kendrick expects U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to return to net-positive daily inflows on Friday.
Third, he wants to see oil prices continue falling as diplomatic developments around Iran unfold.
If all three signals appear, Kendrick’s “crypto spring” thesis would gain stronger support, suggesting that institutional demand and macroeconomic conditions may be aligning to push Bitcoin back toward Standard Chartered’s $100,000 year-end target.