Starbucks’ Strategy to Accelerate Afternoon Sales Growth

Starbucks (SBUX) is targeting a breakthrough in its afternoon sales.

Key Insight: Analysts note that the afternoon segment offers substantial growth potential, with midday and post‑11:00 a.m. sales exceeding $11 billion, according to a Starbucks blog post in April.

In April, the company introduced new energy drinks — officially called Refreshers — to kick‑start growth in the afternoon market, with additional initiatives forthcoming.

In a recent note following a meeting with Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol and investors, Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo highlighted these insights:

Management presented a pipeline of four incremental refreshers — featuring a new blue flavor launching imminently, sparkling variants, zero‑sugar options, and blended mixes — each slated to contribute incremental growth over the coming quarters.

Management acknowledged that afternoon food attachment remains limited and that a substantial food uplift hinges on supply‑chain enhancements not yet fully deployed. Currently, only about 60% of U.S. stores receive daily replenishment, with the remainder on roughly a 72‑hour cycle, which hampers the consistent availability of fresh, low‑velocity items such as small bites. Despite this, investors reacted positively to the breadth of options outlined, noting potential areas like protein, fiber‑rich snacks, chicken, steak, and similar offerings. Management emphasized that the food platform can be rolled out using existing ovens and kitchen layouts.

Starbucks in 2026: In its latest quarter, Starbucks demonstrated progress in executing its core restaurant fundamentals, delivering 8% sales growth to $9.5 billion and reporting earnings of $0.50 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.43.

This performance was driven by a revival in customer traffic, especially in North America, where comparable‑store sales rose 7.1% — the strongest growth in three years. Transaction levels also climbed at their fastest pace in three years. However, investments in store hours, training, and wages pressured operating margins in North America by 170 basis points year‑over‑year.

The quarter’s success aligns with Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” initiative, which focuses on speeding service lines and enhancing mobile ordering. Additionally, the company has introduced new menu items — such as energy refreshers and matcha teas — tailored to afternoon consumers.

Starbucks projects that global and U.S. same‑store sales for the current fiscal year will grow by at least 5%, up from the earlier forecast of 3%. The company also lifted its adjusted earnings‑per‑share outlook to a range of $2.25–$2.45, compared with the prior $2.15–$2.40 estimate.

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