Amid growing concerns about an impending market correction, stocks possess one significant advantage.
They remain entrenched in a robust long-term uptrend, a pattern that historically precedes further gains.
The S&P 500’s (^GSPC) 200-day moving average has climbed for 329 consecutive trading sessions, marking the fourth-strongest streak of the past decade, according to strategists at The Kobeissi Letter.
This follows a prior 460-session rally that briefly halted in April 2025 after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” selloff, pushing the combined streak to roughly 800 sessions — the third-longest since 1990.
The longest such streak endured 1,448 days during the 2000 dot-com bubble.
Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged an 8.5% annual return since 1999 whenever the 200-day moving average has trended higher, the strategists note.
“History suggests the bullish trend remains very much intact,” they added.
While the market appears positioned for additional gains through year-end, supported by solid corporate earnings, the environment may produce more muted returns than those seen in the first half.
A global government bond sell-off has intensified to a degree that should concern all investors. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note (^TNX) — widely considered the world’s most important interest rate — recently reached its highest point since 2023, affecting everything from mortgages to credit cards.
The 30-year yield (^TYX) is approaching a two-decade high, undermining long-term financial planning for investors.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices have surged past $90 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs warned Monday that oil prices could reach $120 per barrel if attacks in the Strait of Hormuz trigger further transport disruptions.
JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka noted that a robust economic backdrop should prevail, with earnings momentum continuing upward as weekly EPS revisions remain net positive across all key regions. “Despite this, many still fear a material correction, and we acknowledge that geopolitical risks and the indirect impact of inflation and bond yields could intensify,” he wrote.
