Strait of Hormuz Shipping Drops Amid Renewed U.S.-Iran Hostilities

Analysts report a sharp decline in Strait of Hormuz traffic since Wednesday, notably on the UN‑backed Omani corridor, following recent vessel attacks and renewed U.S.–Iran strikes.

After a mid‑June truce, flows through the waterway rose to their highest point since the conflict began, though they still linger at roughly one‑third of normal peacetime volumes.

Yet the recovery seems to have stalled: Kpler data show only six commodity tankers had passed by Thursday afternoon (1430 GMT), compared with 21 on Wednesday.

The sole day with lower traffic since the truce was June 28, when 19 commodity vessels transited the strait a day after a tanker was struck off Oman.

U.S. President Donald Trump declared the cease‑fire over on Wednesday, while keeping the possibility of further negotiations alive; analysts warned that achieving a durable peace would remain complex.

“Ebbs and flows are what I anticipate—not only through the summer but likely through year‑end—until Tehran and Washington reach a concrete agreement,” said Andrew Wilson, head of research at BRS Shipbrokers, during a Lloyd’s List webinar on Thursday.

“Conditions are certainly improved compared with March and April, but without a substantial agreement the market will stay highly volatile,” he added.

– Stranded seafarers –

Most vessels transiting since Wednesday have either turned off their transponders or opted for the northern Iranian route, which mandates Iranian clearance.

The southern Omani corridor, previously favored by many non‑Iran‑linked ships, has been largely shunned since Wednesday.

MarineTraffic data indicate that, as of Thursday, no vessel had used the southern Omani route.

Since the site only displays vessels with active transponders, additional ships could have crossed with their signals disabled.

Iran has voiced opposition to the route, noting that two of the three vessels it struck between Monday and Tuesday were in the vicinity when attacked.

Altogether, five ships have been targeted since the Washington‑Tehran memorandum of understanding was signed.

International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Arsenio Dominguez urged shipowners and operators on Wednesday to refrain from exposing the roughly 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf to undue risk by transiting the strait.

“We are not returning to the situation of February 27, and I believe everyone recognizes that,” said Richard Meade, editor‑in‑chief of Lloyd’s List, during Thursday’s briefing.

“A tentative 60‑day accord offering limited guarantees was never likely to shift shipping decisions significantly,” he added.

In recent days, several tankers have been observed reversing course just as they prepared to exit the strait.

The recent relaxation of restrictions has at least permitted many vessels that had been detained in the Gulf for months to leave.

Shipping analysts at AXSMarine reported on Thursday that the number of merchant vessels west of the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to 689, down from 1,061 in early March.

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