The opening weekend of the 2026 World Cup concludes Sunday with a Group F matchup between Sweden and Tunisia at Estadio Monterrey in Mexico. Both teams enter as outsiders in a group that also includes the Netherlands and Japan, making this match a key opportunity to build momentum in the race to advance.
Sweden missed the 2022 World Cup but reached the quarterfinals in 2018 and now returns with one of the tournament’s more dangerous attacking profiles. Tunisia, making its seventh World Cup appearance, is still searching for its first knockout-stage berth in tournament history.
Kickoff is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Sweden as a -110 favorite on the 90-minute money line, with Tunisia at +350 and the draw at +230. The total is set at 2.5 goals, with the over priced at +120 and the under at -148. Sweden is also listed at -1.5 on the spread (+260), while Viktor Gyokeres is +420 as an anytime goal scorer.
Top Sweden vs. Tunisia prediction
After reviewing the matchup, analyst Jon Eimer is leaning toward over 2.5 total goals. Sweden features high-end attacking talent, including Arsenal’s Viktor Gyokeres and Liverpool’s Alexander Isak, but defensive stability remains a concern. Sweden has conceded at least one goal in 11 straight matches, creating potential openings for Tunisia.
Tunisia may be viewed as the less talented side overall, but Eimer believes the team has enough quality to find the net and push the match toward a more open scoring environment. The European experience of players such as Ellyes Skhiri and Ali Abdi could be important if Tunisia looks to press early and disrupt Sweden’s defensive rhythm.
Key factors to watch
The central question is whether Sweden’s attacking firepower can outweigh its defensive vulnerabilities. If Sweden controls possession and converts chances early, it can put pressure on Tunisia’s path to qualification. If Tunisia scores first or keeps the match tight, the game could become more stretched and increase the chances of a higher-scoring result.
For bettors, the matchup points toward over 2.5 goals as the primary angle, with Sweden’s defensive record and Tunisia’s need to be proactive serving as the main reasons behind that outlook.