Sweden’s centre-left bloc leads exit polls as Sweden Democrats lose ground

Sweden’s centre-left parties, which support Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson for prime minister, have taken an early lead with 51.3% in Sunday’s parliamentary election, according to an exit poll by public broadcaster SVT.

Official preliminary results from the Swedish Election Authority were expected within hours. A separate election-day survey by broadcaster TV4 also placed the centre-left bloc in the lead.

Swedish exit polls can offer an important indication of the result, but their accuracy is not guaranteed. In 2022, for example, an exit poll predicted that Andersson’s bloc would win; the election was ultimately won by a right-wing coalition led by Ulf Kristersson, who remains Sweden’s prime minister.

A right-wing victory would bring the Sweden Democrats, which received 17.2% in the SVT exit poll, into national government for the first time.

The vote is widely seen as a referendum on the Sweden Democrats, a party with roots in neo-Nazi extremism, and on whether Sweden, a Nordic country of 10.6 million people, will continue its rightward shift or return to the liberal traditions for which it has long been known.

Several opinion surveys released this week had shown the centre-left opposition narrowly ahead of the governing right-wing bloc.

Kristersson, who trailed in opinion polls throughout his four years in office, narrowed the gap during the final weeks of campaigning as Andersson and the Social Democrats lost support.

Critics accuse Kristersson’s government of undermining civil liberties and pressuring immigrants to conform more closely to Swedish cultural norms or leave the country, through a combination of incentives and penalties.

Electoral success for the Sweden Democrats would be welcomed by Europe’s growing far-right parties, which have drawn momentum from Alternative for Germany’s victory in a state election last week.

The far right is seeking further gains in upcoming European elections, with the National Rally’s bid for the French presidency next year viewed as its biggest potential prize.

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