TD Cowen Projects25% Likelihood of Crypto Clarity Act Passing This Fall

Investment bank TD Securities noted that the long‑awaited Crypto Clarity Act faces a low probability of passage, citing a recent delay and potential Democratic opposition.

The firm indicated that the legislation is unlikely to pass before the summer and estimates only a 25% chance of approval in September.

Lawmakers had anticipated a key vote on the crypto market‑structure bill before the upcoming five‑week recess, but a recent delay postponed the Senate vote to September.

The bank added that, while the bill is not dead, the odds of it becoming law this fall are low, assigning a 75% probability of failure.

TD Cowen expects a possible scenario in which cloture passes in September, followed by Republican opposition to Democratic amendments on ethics and anti‑money‑laundering provisions, prompting Democrats to block a subsequent cloture vote.

The firm also suggested that a cloture vote may never occur; cloture is the Senate’s procedural mechanism for ending debate and advancing a bill to a final vote.

The delayed vote means the bill will likely wait until lawmakers return from the August recess. Although bipartisan efforts have shaped the Clarity Act — passed by the House last year — some Republicans accuse Democrats of stalling its progress.

If enacted, the legislation would establish a federal regulatory framework for U.S. cryptocurrency markets. The current draft, developed jointly by Democrats and Republicans, prohibits government officials from promoting or profiting from crypto and was released in July.

Nevertheless, Democratic senators such as Elizabeth Warren, who have long criticized the Clarity Act, argue that the new legislation would primarily benefit the President and his family.

Major financial institutions — including Goldman Sachs and Fidelity — along with several law‑enforcement agencies, have expressed support for the bill.

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