Corporate earnings season is underway, with mixed results across major banks. JPMorgan Chase missed expectations, while Wells Fargo posted mixed performance. Citigroup beat earnings estimates but revenue barely met consensus, and Goldman Sachs delivered strong results on both revenue and profit. UnitedHealth exceeded forecasts and raised its full‑year profit outlook. FactSet data indicates that S&P 500 earnings are still rising nearly 30% year‑over‑year, though the increase is concentrated in two sectors: energy and technology. Energy firms are expected to report sharp profit jumps as oil prices stay high amid ongoing Middle‑East tensions, while technology companies continue to reap cash from artificial‑intelligence investments. Growth elsewhere is slowing; strategist Savita Subramanian notes that earnings growth outside tech and energy is projected to fall to 7% in Q3, down from 12% in Q2. This divergence is hardly surprising, given that tech and energy have been the top‑performing sectors in 2026, rallying 36% and 49% respectively. However, elevated expectations pose a risk. Bank of America highlights that chipmakers and energy producers are forecast to see earnings jumps of about 130% and 122% year‑over‑year. If these lofty forecasts are not met and the broader market continues to slow, the overall market could come under pressure. “Ultimately, index EPS remains highly dependent on the durability of the AI capex cycle and successful monetization, but the interplay between geopolitics, rates and tech may be underestimated – a higher cost of capital and geopolitical bottlenecks could gum up what has so far been a mostly smooth story,” Subramanian added.
