The conclusion of the US military mission in Iraq has left the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region (KRI) facing a precarious and deeply unsettling security vacuum.
In Baghdad, the departure was met with political fanfare, as Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi officially declared October 1 a “Day of Sovereignty and Independence.”
The announcement was equally celebrated in Tehran, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and various Iranian-backed Shiite militias welcomed the withdrawal.
However, in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region, the prevailing atmosphere is one of deep apprehension and anxiety.
Having depended on Washington’s military protection for over two decades, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) now finds itself navigating a complex web of crises. These include intensifying pressure from Baghdad to centralize authority alongside escalating military threats from neighboring powers, most notably Iran.
Why Iraq can’t escape the US and Iran
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
A strategy of containment
According to Hesam Dastpish, a Middle East analyst based in Brussels, the immediate threat to the Kurdistan region is not a full-scale military invasion, but rather a slow, calculated erosion of its autonomy.
He characterizes Tehran’s overarching strategy toward Erbil as overtly hostile and heavily focused on containment.
The expert stressed that the ultimate goal of the Islamic Republic is to strip the KRI of its political influence, reducing it to little more than a passive administrative body.
“Tehran’s objective is to transform the Kurdistan region into an institution with absolutely no room to maneuver,” Dastpish told DW, pointing to Iran’s repeated strikes in the region, which ostensibly target camps of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups.
Salahuddin Khadiw, a political analyst based in Mahabad in Iran’s Kurdish region, noted that neighboring states do not necessarily seek to completely erase Kurdish autonomy.
Instead, he emphasized, Tehran envisions a “controlled and weak” Kurdistan.
By engaging separately with the rival power centers in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, Iran has successfully maintained influence across the KRI while preventing any single Kurdish authority from emerging as a dominant force on its western border.
Internal fragmentation remains a fatal flaw
Despite the formidable external challenges, the Iraqi Kurdish region’s most critical vulnerability remains its internal division.
The legacy of the 1990s civil war persists through the deeply entrenched rivalry between the two dominant ruling factions: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).
Hiwa Mahmoud Osman, an analyst on Iraqi and Kurdish affairs in the Middle East, pointed out that Tehran heavily exploits this internal friction. “Iran has spent decades mastering political influence inside Iraq,” he told DW. “The Kurds’ biggest hurdle is their own fragmentation. Without a united front, foreign powers simply have far more room to operate.”
What will the US troop withdrawal from Iraq mean for Kurds?
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Ardeshir Pashang, a Middle East researcher in Tehran, warned that if Kurdish leaders fail to resolve their political quarrels, this internal disunity could ultimately lead to the collapse of the Kurdistan region as a political entity.
The opposition dilemma
A particularly thorny issue remains the presence of Iranian Kurdish opposition outfits taking refuge within the KRI.
These groups, which have historically clashed with Iranian state forces, are currently facing immense pressure to disarm and relocate.
Their presence, according to Dastpish, provides Iran with a convenient pretext to launch drone and missile strikes across the border.
However, he does not expect Erbil to offer “total surrender,” as maintaining a delicate balance with these groups is crucial for the KRI’s domestic legitimacy and foreign relations.
Kasra Gharadaghi, a political science researcher based in Florida, argues that these opposition groups are now more vulnerable than ever before.
If Iran was already capable of striking their sanctuaries while US forces were fully deployed—culminating in a 2023 border security pact between Baghdad and Tehran—Erbil’s leverage is now practically non-existent, giving Tehran significantly more power to force concessions, he noted.
Iranian Kurds in Iraq face war fears, exile
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Dollar diplomacy is America’s hidden weapon
While American troops may have departed, Washington’s leverage in Iraq has not entirely vanished; it has simply transitioned toward global financial networks. Gharadaghi describes this shift as a “realignment of power,” where the US, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia act as natural counterweights to Iran’s expanding reach.
Osman echoed this perspective, highlighting Iraq’s profound financial reliance on the US dollar. This economic tether allows the US Treasury to indirectly influence Baghdad’s internal affairs, even down to ensuring salaries are paid to KRI civil servants.
Khadiw similarly characterizes this strategic pivot as America transitioning from a “military balancer” to a “powerful economic observer.”
But as internal and external pressures continue to mount, analysts suggest that Iraq’s Kurdish region may have little choice but to heal its internal divisions and present a united front to preserve its autonomy and limit Iran’s strategic gains in the region.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
