[Cybercab Debuts Spark Tesla Share Decline Amid Divergent Analyst Outlook]
Public records from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles indicate that 45 Cybercab vehicles are authorized for driverless operations in Texas—out of a total of 420 registered Tesla vehicles statewide—illustrating how limited the visible fleet remains despite ambitious plans.
The invitation‑only event was notably devoid of a public livestream, a departure from Tesla’s usual ceremony‑driven product reveals, according to RBC. This quiet showcase left many observers skeptical about the rollout’s momentum.
Wells Fargo
Underweight, $130 price target – “Given the limited update and lack of surprises typically expected at TSLA events, the launch likely fell short of investor expectations. While the stock is down just 2% pre‑market, we see more downside risk as the stock was up 5% yesterday (S&P +1%) and 15% in the last 30 days (S&P ~flat).”
Barclays
Equal weight, $370 price target – “We find the lack of direct communication from Tesla slightly disappointing, especially regarding why the event wasn’t streamed. Moreover, absent any new acceleration in growth or scaling targets, the event appears unlikely to serve as the powerful catalyst that some investors were anticipating.”
JPMorgan
Neutral, $445 price target – “In light of the pronounced uptrend leading up to the event, we anticipate a modest sell‑off, citing the limited information on rollout speed and deployment goals (~45 Cybercabs already registered in Texas). Our Robotaxi outlook forecasts a minimal fleet on the road by the end of 2026, expanding to approximately 9,000 units by year‑end 2027 and continuing to climb beyond 2028.”
Morgan Stanley
Equal weight, $400 price target – “We believe the stock’s recent outperformance correctly reflects early advances in Tesla’s robotaxi effort. Going forward, stronger signals from public tracking sources indicating ongoing expansions of both the unsupervised Cybercab and Model Y fleets should drive additional share gains.”
Goldman Sachs
Neutral, $360 price target – “We maintain confidence that Cybercab positioning offers Tesla an attractive cost profile. Provided Tesla meets its projected unit costs ($20 k–$30 k per Cybercab at scale), the operational savings could amount to $0.05–$0.30 per mile compared with competing autonomous‑vehicle offerings, assuming an upfront expense of $50 k–$100 k per vehicle.”
RBC Capital Markets
Outperform, $480 price target – “Our modeling suggests roughly 40,000 Tesla‑owned CyberCabs by 2030 in the United States, with a steepening curve projected from 2040‑2050 as annual shipments rise from about 1.6 million to 4.3 million units.”
Baird
Outperform
Outperform, $475 price target – “The $475 target stems from a 74‑fold multiple applied to the 2030 EBITDA estimate, retro‑fitted back to fiscal‑year 2026 using a 9 % discount rate—a premium over large‑cap, high‑growth peers who average around 21× (range 4×‑127×) given Tesla’s aggressive growth trajectory and defensible competitive niche.”
