The Standoff Over Cancelling the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

With the Middle East conflict ongoing, it has long been assumed that the cancellation of the season-closing Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix is not merely probable, but unavoidable.

The commercial rights holder has been drawing up contingency plans while publicly insisting that both races remain on the calendar. Much of the F1 paddock has followed this lead: hotels in the Imola area, for example, are nearly fully booked for the weekend originally allocated to the Abu Dhabi round.

Despite widespread expectations that Qatar and Abu Dhabi will ultimately be called off, the promoters of those races continue to publicly maintain that the events will proceed as planned. Abu Dhabi has gone so far as to announce music acts including Zara Larsson, The Script, Imagine Dragons, and Lewis Capaldi — though those who pay attention to social media will have noticed that Larsson has since stated she will not be attending.

All of this forms part of an ongoing negotiation over who will ultimately bear the financial burden. In general, when promoters cancel races, they are the ones who suffer financially, as their contracts with F1 require them to pay the sanctioning fee regardless. Conversely, if the commercial rights holder cancels, it relinquishes those fees.

The sanctioning fees for Qatar and Abu Dhabi have been widely reported at $55 million and $40 million per year respectively, though these figures are understood to be largely speculative. Nonetheless, the amounts at stake are considerable.

Contracts differ among promoters, particularly for races backed by governments rather than traditional commercial entities. But when events are cancelled and funds are lost, a dispute over liability is all but inevitable — especially when the cancellation is forced by external circumstances.

The commercial value of hospitality rights, trackside signage, and other sponsorships means the potential financial repercussions extend well beyond sanctioning fees. This is why Bahrain is hosting its Grand Prix in Malaysia, effectively renting the circuit so that both Bahrain and F1 can meet their contractual obligations.

F1 is going to Malaysia for the Bahrain GP this year

Photo by: Peter J Fox / Getty Images

“We will make the decision at the right time,” F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali said at the end of July. “That moment will be not before the middle of September. For us today, the races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are confirmed.” He added: “By the way, they are already sold out. That is an incredible sign of how much the sport is bigger than the problem that our world is living. But of course, if the situation would not be clearer the way that we believe it should be, before the middle of September, we will take the decision.”

Beyond displaying a rather tone-deaf view of F1’s relevance to geopolitics, this statement also muddied the timeline: would the decision come before or after mid-September? Either way, that date has now passed.

Domenicali also confirmed that if the final two rounds were cancelled, the season would not conclude with a double-header in Las Vegas. Despite some sources still suggesting such an outcome is likely, it is not. F1 already has to navigate its relationships with other Las Vegas stakeholders, and it is understood that back-to-back events in the city would be unwelcome to the local business community. A double-header would also conflict with the Thanksgiving holiday.

The need to find a replacement for a final round, in the event that Qatar and Abu Dhabi are removed from the calendar, is also contractual. As things stand, if those races disappear, F1 would be left with 22 rounds. While this would satisfy the majority of its broadcast contracts, it is understood that at least one requires 23.

Imola was considered a certainty to host the season finale, but during the Italian Grand Prix weekend it emerged that F1 had faced significant pushback from Qatar and Abu Dhabi over the potential cancellation of their rounds. The most commercially satisfactory outcome would be for the Imola round to serve as a proxy for one of them, similar to how the Bahrain Grand Prix was held in Malaysia.

Imola is poised to host an impromptu F1 finale

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

However, it is understood that both Qatar and Abu Dhabi are determined to project an image of business as usual, given that both have invested heavily in establishing their airports as major international travel hubs.

Difficult days therefore lie ahead for the commercial rights holder, which will need to make a decision soon for logistical reasons. In pursuit of its net-zero emissions target by 2030, F1 now moves a significant amount of equipment by sea, which naturally entails longer lead times.

Beyond the timescales involved in shipping infrastructure to the Gulf region, there is the practical issue of cargo having to transit the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that opens and closes depending on the state of hostilities between Iran and the United States. Should the final rounds remain as scheduled, more freight would need to be airlifted, driving up both costs and emissions.

And as this game of brinksmanship continues between the commercial rights holder and the Middle Eastern promoters, the teams themselves also face pressing questions. If they are required to transport equipment and personnel to locations that have been in proximity to military targets during an active conflict, their insurance policies are unlikely to provide coverage.

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