Third‑Largest Ebola Outbreak, Fueled by Rare Bundibugyo Strain, Spreads Across Central Africa

The rapid spread of a rare Ebola strain through Central and East Africa has placed local health authorities under intense pressure and heightened concerns about global health security.

Infection rates have surged as the uncommon Bundibugyo virus now marks the third‑largest Ebola outbreak on record. The disease is believed to have circulated undetected since around February, affecting the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and spilling over into neighboring Uganda and, more recently, France. Over a month after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, confirmed cases exceed a thousand, with hundreds of fatalities reported primarily in eastern DRC.

While the worldwide risk remains low, experts warn that the outbreak could evolve into a broader regional crisis if containment measures falter. “We do not yet have a full picture of how widespread the outbreak is,” said former U.S. global health security coordinator Stephanie Psaki. She added that the situation “is probably on track to be the first or second largest before it’s contained.”

Efforts to curb transmission are complicated by delayed detection and the virus’s resistance to existing vaccines, which are designed for the more common Zaire species. A U.S. CDC analysis indicates the initial animal‑to‑human transmission occurred in February, yet health ministries in the DRC and Uganda did not declare an outbreak until mid‑May. The WHO received its first alert on May 5, but early tests failed to identify the rare strain, allowing the virus to spread unchecked for several months.

The ongoing conflict in the DRC—displacing nearly seven million people, five million of whom reside in the most affected provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri—creates “extraordinarily difficult conditions for infectious disease control,” according to CFR expert Michelle Gavin. Armed group movements and frequent undocumented border crossings further hinder tracking and response.

Current priorities focus on limiting both internal and cross‑border transmission to neighboring states such as Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan, and Uganda. Border screenings and rapid case identification are seen as critical, though “even in the best‑case scenario, it will continue to spread for some time,” Psaki noted. Contact tracing remains a challenge; while the target is to trace at least 95 percent of contacts, WHO figures from early June indicated only about 60 percent were actually tracked.

Global risk remains classified as low, but several nations have instituted travel restrictions. Canada and the Bahamas have temporarily banned entry for citizens of the DRC, South Sudan, and Uganda. France, which recorded its first case in June—an aid worker returning from the DRC—has introduced a monitoring system for repatriated personnel. The United States has placed entry restrictions on non‑citizens from affected countries and strengthened screening for returning citizens, while also pausing visa services at its embassies in the region.

Despite these measures, experts stress that insufficient international cooperation and dwindling aid threaten long‑term containment. The WHO and Africa CDC launched a $518 million, six‑month emergency response plan in early June, yet declining humanitarian assistance, the dissolution of USAID, and a reduced role for the U.S. CDC raise doubts about meeting funding goals. “The current situation is a microcosm of the larger geopolitical isolationism we’re seeing,” said CFR’s Sam Vigersky, who led disaster response teams during the 2014‑16 West Africa epidemic.

The outbreak also underscores the dangers of misinformation. Communities in the DRC are encountering rumors that the disease is a hoax or a profit‑driven scheme by Western aid workers, eroding public trust. “Africans resent being stigmatized by outbreaks,” Gavin observed, noting that such narratives impede effective public‑health communication.

Looking ahead, analysts warn that continued cuts to global health funding could exacerbate future crises. The Trump administration has requested about $1.4 billion from Congress to support the Ebola response, yet proposed reductions in overall foreign‑aid budgets have heightened concerns among health security experts. Without sustained investment in surveillance, local health capacities, and rapid‑response teams, “the cost, for sure, will be lives lost,” Vigersky cautioned.

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