NATO members agreed on a comprehensive €140 billion military aid package for Ukraine during the recent Ankara summit. Following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot air‑defense missiles on its own soil.
The Patriot system is essential for defending Ukraine against Russian ballistic strikes. Reports indicate that Ukrainian stockpiles of these missiles are depleted, as the air force was unable to down any Russian missiles during the massive attack on July 6.
Trump said the United States will share its Patriot technology and provide the necessary support for Ukraine to produce these missiles. He also expressed interest in purchasing Ukrainian drones, marking a notable shift in his stance toward Ukraine’s defense industry. Trump praised the country’s extensive drone manufacturing capabilities, describing the effort as “amazing” given the wartime conditions.
Ukrainian drone expertise is in high demand across Europe, and several countries signed drone agreements with Ukraine at the Ankara summit.
A historic decision
Ukraine would be the third country worldwide—after Japan and Germany—to receive the right to produce Patriot missiles. Transitioning from political agreement to active production will take years, according to military expert Oleh Katkov, editor‑in‑chief of Defense Express.
“It’s truly a historic moment,” Katkov told DW. “However, this process requires more than a few days or weeks. Japan took two years from agreement to production, and Ukraine is likely still at a stage where the U.S. and Ukrainian governments must reach a formal political accord.”
He added that a government‑level agreement must precede collaboration with defense contractors. “Once that is in place, we can negotiate with the U.S. companies holding the rights to the missiles.”
Katkov explained that Lockheed Martin manufactures PAC‑3 missiles and RTX (Raytheon) produces PAC‑2 missiles. “These firms must first draft contracts with Ukrainian firms before we can discuss production in Ukraine.”
Oleksandr Khara, director of Ukraine’s Centre for Defence Strategies, noted that the issue extends beyond the production license. “I hope there are no hidden conditions—such as expectations of concessions to Russia—before these Patriot missiles are granted. We can anticipate various constraints from the current U.S. administration.”
Ihor Reiterovych of Kyiv’s Taras Shevchenko National University expressed skepticism about the swift implementation of the agreement. “It’s more symbolic,” he said to DW. “It serves as a message to Russia but will take time for Ukraine to actually establish a Patriot production line.”
Reiterovych emphasized the White House’s stance as a signal to the Kremlin that the U.S. remains committed to supporting Ukraine. “If Ukraine doesn’t produce Patriots immediately, it will do so later, which should serve as a warning to Russia.”
Is Ukrainian NATO membership on the agenda?
The Ankara summit largely avoided discussion of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Khara attributes this to Trump’s stance. “Before his return to the White House, Trump signaled opposition to Ukraine joining NATO. If the alliance’s most influential member adopts this view, it is unlikely that membership will be seriously considered.” Nevertheless, Khara believes Kyiv should not abandon its strategic goalעקטivation.”
“Europe must continue to uphold a aujourd’collective security system, and Ukraine’s inclusion is vital,” Khara added. “We cannot contain Russia alone over the long term.”
Reiterovych considers the summit a success for Kyiv, stating that the focus on Ukraine underscores its pivotal role in European security, even though NATO accession was not discussed.
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