Trump Confronts High-Stakes Midterm Test as 100-Day Countdown Begins

WASHINGTON: With 100 days remaining until the U.S. midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s Republicans are confronting polling that signals a likely loss of the House majority and a fierce struggle to hold the Senate. Although Trump is not on the ballot on November 3, the stakes for his presidency are enormous. A Democratic-controlled House would wield subpoena power and committee gavels, potentially launching two years of investigations and setting the stage for a third impeachment effort. Republicans head into the final stretch defending a historically slim House majority, hampered by low presidential approval ratings and an electorate increasingly frustrated by the cost of living and the protracted conflict with Iran. The forecasting site Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 59 percent chance of flipping the House, projecting a 224-211 majority. Historical precedent favors the opposition party in midterms, and only a few seats need to shift. Gasoline prices have surged past $4 a gallon amid energy market disruptions from the Iran war, while inflation and interest rates remain elevated. Internal Democratic polling suggests voters now trust Democrats more on inflation, health care, and even immigration—traditionally a Republican stronghold. “Donald Trump and Republicans have failed the American people,” House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declared Thursday, unveiling an affordability agenda centered on groceries, fuel, housing, and health care.

‘Work to Do’

Republicans argue the election presents a choice between what Speaker Mike Johnson terms “common sense” and an increasingly progressive Democratic Party. They intend to emphasize border enforcement and tax cuts while painting Democratic candidates as allies of the socialist left. Trump is leveraging every available tool, pressing congressional Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act—legislation he frames as vital to preventing election fraud but Democrats denounce as voter suppression. The GOP has found greater success in shaping the battlefield through redistricting. While both parties have engineered safe seats, Republicans are poised to gain a net advantage of five to 12 seats from the new maps. That structural edge could counterbalance the national headwinds in a House race expected to be decided by a razor-thin margin. Sarah Binder, a political science professor at George Washington University, noted the redistricting arms race has been especially consequential this cycle, leaving fewer than one in 20 House races as genuine toss-ups. “Redistricting has really pared back the grounds on which Democrats can contest those seats,” she told AFP. Republicans also enjoy a significant financial cushion, with campaign committees and allied groups entering the homestretch with tens of millions more than their Democratic counterparts.

‘Very Small Favorites’

The Senate landscape presents a distinct but equally dramatic contest. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats require a net gain of four seats. Decision Desk HQ narrowly favors Republicans to retain control, likely via a 50-50 split where Vice President JD Vance would cast tie-breaking votes. For Trump, even a divided Congress—with a Democratic House and Republican Senate—would fundamentally alter his remaining term. His legislative agenda would stall, his officials would face oversight hearings, and Democrats would gain a national platform to scrutinize the Iran war, administration ethics, and election reform efforts. Political analyst Chuck Todd observed on a podcast marking the 100-day milestone that Republicans have slipped from “clear favorites” in the Senate nine months ago to “very small favorites.” He predicted House races would yield a Democratic advantage of 10 to 25 seats, driven by Trump’s persistently weak polling. A new Economist/YouGov survey places the president’s approval at 36 percent, near record lows. “There is no better predictor of a midterm than presidential job approval,” Todd said. “A president’s job approval under 45 guarantees their party is going to lose seats… A president under 40 — they’re going to lose chambers. The question is, how bad is it? How big is the wave going to be?”

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