[THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HOLDS HIGH‑STAKES SUMMIT WITH CHINESE PRESIDENT XI AMID US MIDTERMS]
With midterm elections approaching in the United States, President Donald Trump is preparing to host Chinese President Xi Jinping for a high‑stakes meeting in Washington on Thursday, amid mounting concern in his administration that the Republicans could lose control of Congress. A successful summit could offer Trump a boost, but there are disagreements over trade, Taiwan, Iran and human rights on the table.
Michael Dillon, a history professor affiliated with the Lau China Institute of London’s King’s College, spoke to RFI about the political calculations behind the meeting and Trump’s approach to China – as well as Xi’s prospects of remaining in power beyond 2027.
RFI: What do you think President Trump will get out of this meeting with Xi Jinping?
Michael Dillon: He has the midterm elections, which are, at least in theory, more transparent than any political maneuverings within [China’s leadership compound] Zhongnanhai in Beijing. Trump is beginning to realise that he’s really in danger of losing the House and possibly even the Senate.
So appearing at a full state visit could increase his prestige. But all I can see are advantages in appearance protocol at the moment rather than detail – although the detailed negotiations have been going on for some time, notably between Scott Bessent, the American trade secretary, and Hua Lixiang, his Chinese counterpart.
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“The track record of US‑China relations is not good.”
RFI: Taiwan has been a longstanding point of tension between China and the United States, since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1979. While Beijing considers Taiwan part of China, Washington maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan and provides it with defensive arms under the Taiwan Relations Act – although the Trump administration recently delayed a reported US$14 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. How might changes in US policy towards Taiwan affect Beijing’s approach to cross‑Strait relations and its stated goal of reunification?
MD: He doesn’t want any ongoing negotiations about arms to Taiwan to be on the table while the summit is going ahead, but Trump does not have any sympathy for Taiwanese independence. He’s certainly not part of the large group of Americans who are informed about Asia who are sympathetic to Taiwan independence.
It would be a feather in Xi Jinping’s cap if he could manage to incorporate Taiwan into the mainland. That is highly unlikely. But there could be some deal done which makes it look nearer, in the same way that the takeover of Hong Kong began quite slowly and suddenly changed into something major.
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RFI: The Trump administration has raised human rights issues in relation to China, including the case of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai, while President Trump has also acknowledged Beijing’s concerns about Lai. How would you describe the current role of human rights in US‑China relations, and how does it compare with previous US administrations?
MD: Trump’s never had any truck with human rights at all. Trump’s negotiations are transactional. He seemed to be prepared to speak up for Jimmy Lai, presumably because there was something in it for him.
Trump is not doing very [well] at human rights at home at the moment, having just closed down a lot of the news reporting of his own press conferences. I don’t really think he ever considers human rights to be something that matters. He really is out of the run of normal United States presidents on that issue.