President Donald Trump used his social‑media platform Truth Social to claim that “OIL IS FLOWING,” “THE STOCK MARKETS ARE ROARING, JOBS ARE AT RECORDS, AND PRICES ARE DROPPING (AFFORDABILITY!)” as the United States and Iran move toward a peace accord.
Stock Market Hits Record High on Ceasefire Hopes
Tuesday’s closing figure shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record 51,999.67, driven by optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran ceasefire and a rally in newly listed SpaceX.
After the Federal Reserve signaled it would keep the benchmark rate at 3.5‑3.75 %, the Dow pulled back to 51,494.99 on Wednesday before gaining 0.35 % in Thursday’s midday trade to 51,671.
The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, however, fell on the same day.
Experts caution that stock‑market performance does not directly reflect the experience of the roughly 38 % of Americans who do not invest. “The market isn’t the economy,” said Michael Klein of Tufts University. “That’s an important distinction.”
Prices: Mixed Trends amid Ongoing Supply Constraints
Petrol prices have slipped in recent days, averaging $3.99 per gallon on Thursday—down from a May peak of $4.48, though still above the $2.98 level seen before the U.S.–Israel strikes in February.
Analysts expect gasoline costs to plateau for consumers as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—recently at its lowest level since 1983—re‑fills and supply‑chain bottlenecks persist.
“Even with oil stabilising, transportation, insurance, and manufacturing costs keep the overall price base elevated,” said Tammy Kulesa of Blue Yonder.
Consumer inflation stands at 4.2 %, with energy prices up nearly 8 % in the past two months. Grocery prices rose 0.1 % in May after a 0.7 % increase in April, with notable jumps in bakery items, cereals, beverages, fruits and vegetables.
Economist Michael Klein added, “People’s real purchasing power has fallen because wages have not kept pace with higher costs.”
In response, Kroger announced plans to cut prices on thousands of products across its roughly 3,000 U.S. stores, citing pressure from discount competitors.
Employment: Job Growth Slows Despite Trump’s Claims
May’s payroll report showed a gain of 172,000 jobs, far below the 300,000 average monthly increase under former President Joe Biden.
During Trump’s first term, the strongest month was March 2025 with 214,000 hires, while the overall average in 2025 has been only 15,000 per month. February 2025 even recorded a net loss of 92,000 jobs.
Layoffs are accelerating; Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a 16 % rise in job cuts between April and May—the highest since May 2020—driven partly by artificial‑intelligence automation, with more than 97,000 workers affected in May.
Oil Market Responds to Strait of Hormuz Re‑opening
In one 24‑hour period, about 12.5 million barrels of crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles roughly one‑fifth of global oil shipments, according to Vice President JD Vance.
Data from Kpler, however, shows only six verified crossings on June 17, indicating that traffic remains limited.
As the strait begins to reopen, Brent crude futures fell to $76.51, a one‑percent drop, while LNG shipments have risen; a QatarEnergy vessel loaded more than 209,000 m³ at Ras Laffan.
