Trump’s InflationRemark Sparks Debate as Consumers Face Rising Costs, Analysts Warn

President Donald Trump remarked on Wednesday that he ‘loves’ the inflation, which surged above 4% for the first time in three years due to energy price increases linked to the Iran conflict.

He described the CPI figures as ‘great,’ even as they signaled higher inflation.

U.S. households are increasingly uneasy about how the Middle East conflict is influencing everyday prices, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey that found the share of respondents describing their situation as ‘much worse’ than a year ago reached a near‑four‑year high.

The oil shock is exerting upward pressure on prices at a moment when many consumers are already financially strained.

The U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, in its minority report, estimates that tariffs and the Iran war will cost the average household more than $3,100 between 2025 and May 2026.

When asked for comment, a White House spokesperson provided a New York Post story in which Trump said he appreciated that inflation had not risen even higher, noting that ‘the numbers are much lower than anticipated.’

Elevated prices on essentials such as groceries and gasoline are limiting how far workers can stretch their paychecks, experts say.

‘For most American households, they have negative real earnings growth; it’s hard to spin that positively in any way,’ said certified financial planner Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate. ‘Most of the earnings gains have been erased by this inflation spike.’

With average hourly earnings rising 3.4% from the previous year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wage growth now lags inflation.

An annual inflation rate of 4.2% means ‘you are devaluing the assets and the income of U.S. residents — that is a huge problem,’ said Wayne Winegarden, an economist at the Pacific Research Institute, a conservative think tank. ‘To minimize that impact is troubling.’

With inflation outpacing paychecks, Americans’ personal savings rate also recently hit the lowest level since 2022, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Trump said again this week that a deal with Iran could be reached in the days ahead, and that the critical Strait of Hormuz would reopen ‘immediately’ after that.

The comments came after Trump said that the U.S. would hit Iran ‘very hard’ again.

The president has made many similar comments in recent months about a peace deal being nearly at hand. The war crossed the 100‑day mark on Sunday.

But even once the U.S. and Iran negotiate a peace deal, the war’s inflationary effects could take weeks or months to unwind, experts say.

‘The speed of reopening the Strait will be very important for future cost pressures, and consequent pass-through to consumers,’ BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder said in a statement Wednesday, referring to the key waterway used to transport about a fifth of the world’s oil.

Gas prices, which have been a particular pain point since the start of the Iran war, may not ease that quickly, according to Bankrate’s Kates.

‘You are still looking at an enormous increase year over year,’ Kates said. As of Thursday, consumers paid a national average of $4.13 per gallon, according to AAA — up from about $3.12 a year ago.

‘The price level is what people care about, and the price levels are not going back to 2025 — even if we have no inflation in the next few years, which is impossible,’ Kates said.

Some Federal Reserve policymakers have also expressed concerns that, as the conflict persists, it could raise long-term inflation expectations.

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