Trump’s Iran Trade Threat Spotlights Key Economic Partners

President Trump has warned of “tremendous economic consequences” for any country conducting business with Iran, though he provided no specifics. The move appears designed to further isolate Tehran from the global financial system and compel its leadership to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Washington has already imposed crippling sanctions on Iran’s economy and leadership, while the Trump administration has previously penalized foreign entities trading with Tehran. The president’s vaguely worded social media post on Wednesday suggested he may target nations purchasing Iranian oil, without identifying any by name.

Mr. Trump has occasionally retreated from such threats in the past. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the latest warning as “a diversion” from domestic crises facing the United States.

Should the president follow through, the following nations would face the greatest exposure:

China

China remains Iran’s largest trading partner and primary oil customer, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a congressional body monitoring bilateral relations.

For years, Beijing has stood virtually alone among major powers in defying Western sanctions on Iranian crude, purchasing up to 90 percent of Tehran’s oil exports. In recent months, however, a U.S. naval blockade has severely restricted Iran’s ability to ship oil by sea.

Last year, China valued its bilateral trade with Iran at nearly $10 billion, excluding oil transactions.

From Beijing’s perspective, that figure is negligible relative to the scale of its economy, said William Figueroa, a specialist in Chinese-Iranian relations at the University of Groningen. “It wouldn’t be catastrophic for China if its trade or ability to import Iranian oil were disrupted,” he noted.

The principal value of the relationship for Beijing is geopolitical, said Andrea Ghiselli, a political scientist at the University of Exeter specializing in China. China benefits from preserving the Iranian regime as a strategic counterweight to the United States, he explained.

Dr. Ghiselli characterized China’s Iranian oil imports as marginal and easily replaceable with alternative global supplies.

Asked Thursday about potential coercive U.S. economic measures, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian urged all parties to resolve differences through diplomacy. “Sanctions and pressure will not help solve the problem,” he stated.

India

Iran was once India’s most critical energy supplier. U.S. sanctions have since compelled New Delhi to drastically curtail ties, with bilateral trade plummeting in recent years, according to data from the Indian embassy in Iran.

Officials estimate total bilateral trade at $1.63 billion for the 2025-26 financial year, a sharp decline from over $17 billion in 2018-19.

India halted Iranian oil purchases entirely in 2019 under pressure from the Trump administration. In the most recent fiscal year, Indian officials reported imports limited primarily to apples, pistachios, dates, and kiwis.

United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan

These four Iranian trading partners also appear vulnerable to Mr. Trump’s threat, said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London-based think tank focused on Iran’s economy.

On Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates appeared to preempt the president’s comments by announcing a halt to all trade and financial transactions with Iran. World Trade Organization data valued Iranian-Emirati trade at roughly $28 billion in 2024. The Emirati decision could impair Iranian importers’ ability to pay for goods, as many financial services are routed through the U.A.E., Mr. Batmanghelidj said.

Pakistan and Turkey have thus far been largely shielded from U.S. economic measures targeting Tehran, even as they maintain significant overland trade with Iran, Mr. Batmanghelidj noted.

In 2022, the latest year for which WTO data is available, Iran imported more than $11 billion in goods from Turkey, its third-largest import source that year.

For both Pakistan and Turkey, “it is politically and geopolitically very important that both these countries maintain a good relationship with Iran,” said Mr. Batmanghelidj. “And I think this is where the Trump administration is really going to struggle.”

Burcu Ozcelik, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said Iraq also faces vulnerability to U.S. economic pressure due to its continued trade with Iran. American sanctions have already targeted Iranian-linked groups in Iraq.

Dr. Ozcelik cautioned that broader sanctions on Iran’s trading partners would be far more complex to implement, and enforcement would be “slow, uneven and difficult to monitor.” It remains uncertain, she added, whether “greater pressure would produce the political behavior Trump is seeking.”

Keith Bradsher and Siyi Zhao contributed research.

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