Trump’s Spectre Casts a Long Shadow Over 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Announcement

OSLO, October 7, 2026

While experts regard Donald Trump’s prospects of securing the Nobel Peace Prize as negligible, his lingering influence will nonetheless cast a significant shadow over Friday’s winner announcement in Oslo.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee anticipates intense scrutiny. Since returning to the White House in January 2025, the Republican billionaire has campaigned intensively for the award and has not concealed his disappointment at failing to win it previously.

However, the likelihood of his selection is severely compromised by his war against Iran, territorial ambitions—sometimes pursued at the expense of allies, as in Greenland—and assaults on international cooperation bodies and the media.

Even with reduced public lobbying in recent weeks, Trump remains on everyone’s minds. There is a strong possibility that the committee’s selection, whoever it may be, will be interpreted as either a direct or indirect criticism of the US president.

“He is the spectre in the room,” said Haakon Gjerlow, head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO). He noted the committee must ask itself whether awarding the prize could generate harm rather than good, given the potential reaction from the White House.

The Nobel Institute maintains it is unfazed by the political climate. “There’s always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee. So in one sense we’re very used to that,” said Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the committee, in comments to AFP. “It’s not something we don’t discuss. Of course we have to discuss it, but it’s not like that influences the discussions in the room and decisions that come out,” he insisted.

‘Age of Predators’

Last year’s recipient, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, was generally viewed as palatable to Trump. She even gifted him the Nobel gold medal following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, judging that he deserved it, though she failed to secure his political backing in return.

Those precedents could push the committee toward a candidate enjoying broad consensus, such as an individual or organization defending children or advancing humanitarian goals. Candidates could include the Save the Children charity and Mykola Kuleba, a Ukrainian children’s rights activist campaigning to repatriate children illegally transferred to Russia from occupied territories—a cause near to the heart of Trump’s wife, Melania.

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a wide network of volunteers risking their lives to assist people facing both war and hunger, could also emerge as a contender. Yet the committee may equally opt for a laureate likely to displease Trump. Options could encompass Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories, Pope Leo XIV, press freedoms via an award to the Committee to Protect Journalists, or international justice bodies like the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

“We live in an age of predators. We have Trump, Putin, Netanyahu,” Nobel historian Asle Sveen said. “They don’t want to have an international order. They want to have big powers with spheres of influence. And this court stands in the way,” he said, referring to the ICC.

While 287 individuals and organizations have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, the shortlist remains confidential for 50 years. Despite this, peace remains elusive globally: PRIO registered 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor in 2025, the highest count since 1946.

“At an overall level, it is clear that the world is not developing in the right direction,” Harpviken said. “At the same time … there is no lack of good initiatives. There is no lack of organizations or individuals who do good work. A peace prize may make more sense than ever.”

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