Turkey is working urgently to restore safe passage for cargo ships in the Black Sea amid intensified attacks on shipping that are disrupting grain exports and driving up global prices. Russia and Ukraine, both major global wheat exporters, have significantly escalates attacks on maritime routes and port infrastructure, severely hampering commercial trade in the region.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced this week that Ankara is developing a comprehensive plan to ensure secure transit for commercial vessels navigating the Black Sea, engaging in diplomatic consultations with both Kiev and Moscow. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed he raised the security concerns with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a regional leaders’ summit in Kyrgyzstan.
The initiative follows Ukraine and Russia rampant attacks on shipping and coastal facilities throughout the Black Sea. In 2022, Turkey and the United Nations facilitated a tenuous agreement that temporarily allowed Ukrainian grain exports to proceed safely, though this arrangement collapsed after a year due to renewed hostilities.
“With rising tensions, this new agreement will face substantial obstacles,” warned Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “Turkey’s good relations alone cannot resolve this issue. Both sides must engage in direct negotiations to establish a shared solution, as Turkey cannot address this crisis independently.”
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Escalating Maritime Hostilities
In August, Ukraine proposed a temporary ceasefire for commercial shipping operations, an offer Moscow rejected in favor of pursuing broader negotiations. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian maritime assets continue, while Russia persists in missile attacks targeting Ukrainian ports and vessels. These actions intensify as both nations strive to complete their annual grain harvests ahead of international demand cycles.
Grain markets have surged by as much as 30 percent despite alternative export efforts, according to broker Can Atbasoglu. While Russia utilizes routes through Baltic ports and EU-accessible waters, and Ukraine reroutes shipments via Romania and the Danube River, overall export volumes will decline significantly. “Market prices will remain volatile,” Atbasoglu cautioned. “Further increases are likely if trade routes stay restricted.”
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Maritime Industry at Standstill
At an Istanbul shipyard, vessels previously operating in the Black Sea now sit idle, some bearing damage from recent attacks. One ship remains under repair after sustaining drone strike damage, while others await maintenance as owners avoid risky voyages. “We delayed departing for the Black Sea due to security concerns and didn’t load cargo,” said an anonymous ship superintendent. “Even with repairs nearly complete, uncertainty looms over future operations.”
Turkish shipping firms report rising bankruptcies as idle ships accumulate costs exceeding 50,000 euros monthly in port fees and crew wages. VI-ZA STAR CEO Ziya Ustel noted that while lucrative freight rates are being offered for Black Sea crossings, risk levels remain prohibitive. “Without a diplomatic resolution, shipowners won’t attempt these routes again,” Ustel warned. “A credible solution is essential to prevent total market collapse.”
Diplomatic Intervention Urgent
Ankara is expected to intensify outreach to mediate a new maritime agreement. Grain traders suggest diplomatic progress may currently be preventing prices from reaching earlier war-period peaks. However, failure in Turkish negotiations could trigger severe global food insecurity, particularly for low-income nations heavily reliant on Ukrainian and Russian grain supplies.
