Turkey’s Saudi Defence Pact Faces First Major Test Amid Houthi Escalation

Attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia are testing Turkey’s new defence pact with the kingdom for the first time, forcing Ankara to balance support for its ally against the risk of deeper entanglement in the conflict.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on August 7, committing to the principle that an attack on one constitutes an attack on all. The three nations’ military chiefs convened in Riyadh on Friday, a day after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a fresh barrage of missiles targeting the Saudi capital and Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu. In recent weeks, Riyadh has reported intercepting numerous Houthi drone and ballistic missile attacks originating from Yemen.

According to Saudi and Pakistani statements, the military leaders discussed intelligence sharing, military coordination, and integrating capabilities. Turkey’s defence ministry declined to comment on the meeting.

Saudi Expectations

Turkey has so far stopped short of committing to direct military action. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated this month that Ankara was exploring “technical support,” though he did not elaborate on the specifics.

Saudi Arabia may seek Turkish air defence systems, counter-drone technology, radars, and maritime security expertise, given the capabilities of the Turkish military and defence industry, said Amed Khuzaie of the Washington-based N7 Foundation.

“The Mecca Agreement will prove its vitality and importance only if it is deemed functional,” Khuzaie told RFI.

The Riyadh meeting followed talks in New York on Thursday involving the Saudi and Turkish foreign ministers and Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Turkish media, citing foreign ministry sources, reported the discussions focused on ongoing “technical negotiations.”

However, providing support to Saudi Arabia could expose Turkey to Houthi retaliation. “By God, if Turkey and Pakistan become involved, we will strike them with an iron fist,” Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi member, warned in a televised interview.

Risk of Retaliation

The threat should be taken seriously given the Houthis’ military presence around the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical waterway linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, explained Amed Nagi, a Yemen expert at the International Crisis Group.

“[The Houthis] targeted US and UK shipping in the Red Sea,” Nagi said. “They could do the same beyond that to the Gulf of Aden, because we know Turkey is very active in the Horn of Africa. So I think these are the areas that the Houthis will consider if there is any retaliation against Turkey.”

In 2024, the Houthis attacked US military and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, damaging the bulk carrier Gibraltar Eagle with a cruise missile and sinking the British-linked cargo ship MV Rubymar.

The risks for Ankara extend beyond possible Houthi retaliation; Turkey must also manage its relationship with Iran, which backs the Yemeni group.

“It is not in Turkey’s interest to have a direct confrontation with any actor in the region, and the Houthis have become a proxy of Iran; Turkey doesn’t want a direct confrontation with Iran,” said Bilgehan Alagoz, an international relations professor at Istanbul’s Marmara University. “Turkey is trying to solve the issue from a diplomatic point of view.”

In a joint statement last week, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt affirmed that dialogue and diplomacy remain the only sustainable path to resolving regional conflicts, while upholding Saudi Arabia’s right to self-defence under international law.

Fidan met his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in New York on Friday. He later said they discussed Iran’s negotiations with the United States and conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but acknowledged that diplomatic efforts had yet to yield a breakthrough.

Iran Balancing Act

The diplomatic efforts come as Turkey’s relationship with Iran faces additional strains. Turkey-based analyst Soli Ozel said Ankara has for decades walked a “fine line” between rivalry and cooperation with Tehran while balancing ties with Western allies, particularly the United States.

Turkey’s banking regulator recently revoked the operating licence of Iran’s Bank Mellat branch in Istanbul, though the official notice did not cite US sanctions enforcement. The US Treasury also stated that Ankara agreed, following talks with Washington, to halt flights by Iran’s Mahan Air as part of compliance with US measures against Tehran. Three Turkish airlines subsequently suspended flights to Iran.

Turkish authorities have repeatedly accused Iran of hostile operations on Turkish soil, including the assassination and abduction of Iranian dissidents. In January, security forces arrested six people suspected of spying for Iran and gathering intelligence on the Incirlik air base, which hosts US forces.

Engaging in the conflict against the Houthis could further upset Ankara’s delicate relationship with Tehran, Ozel told RFI.

“The Iranians, who actually have a lot of [intelligence] capabilities in Turkey—we’ve seen that before—then you find yourself in a hot or cold war,” he said.

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