Turkey’s Strategic Importance Grows as NATO Summit Takes Place Amid Shifting Alliances

Two decades ago, I covered Turkey’s prolonged attempts to join the European Union. Based in Paris at the time, my articles on these negotiations often prompted calls from former French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, who echoed a widespread European view that Turkey was too large, too undemocratic, and too “different” for E.U. membership. Today, Turkey remains outside the European Union, but its global standing has evolved significantly. With a formidable military, a thriving defense sector, and a president capable of engaging Donald Trump, NATO allies increasingly view Ankara as indispensable.

This shift is underscored by Turkey’s hosting of a NATO summit, its first since 2004. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now enters the gathering as a pivotal figure whose strategic assets align with the alliance’s immediate priorities.

Historically, Turkey faced criticism within NATO for delaying accession approvals and resisting Western sanctions on Russia amid the Ukraine conflict. Erdogan’s personal rapport with Vladimir Putin further strained ties, while Western leaders voiced concerns over his authoritarian governance. However, evolving geopolitical dynamics—including the Ukraine war and Trump’s inconsistent commitment to transatlantic solidarity—have recalibrated Turkey’s role. NATO now prioritizes its military capabilities, defense manufacturing capacity, and diplomatic leverage.

Turkey’s military ranks second in NATO after the U.S., and it controls vital maritime access to the Black Sea. Its defense industry generated over $10 billion in exports last year, producing cost-effective artillery, drones, and other equipment. Additionally, Turkey’s extensive diplomatic ties span the Balkans, Africa, and the Middle East. It has mediated post-Assad Syria stability efforts, facilitated Gaza ceasefire negotiations through Hamas contacts, and maintained Iran dialogue despite missile attacks. These roles highlight its utility in addressing regional crises.

Despite this, tensions linger. Turkey’s exclusion from European defense initiatives and Erdogan’s consolidation of power—including the imprisonment of opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu and court actions against rival politicians—remain unresolved. NATO allies privately question Turkey’s adherence to democratic principles and the rule of law. Publicly, however, strategic imperatives mute criticism. As a former U.S. ambassador noted, Europe’s pressing security challenges overshadow concerns over Ankara’s domestic policies.

Erdogan’s influence extends to the summit itself. Trump’s attendance, reportedly secured by the Turkish leader’s invitation, reflects the transactional nature of current alliances. The U.S. has signaled interest in resuming F-35 sales to Turkey, previously blocked after Ankara’s 2019 acquisition of Russian S-400 systems. This potential thaw underscores Turkey’s growing leverage in shaping NATO’s future.

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