The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) finished 0.72% higher, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) rose 0.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) gained 1.26%. September E‑Mini S&P futures (ESU26) increased 0.82%, while September E‑Mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) added 1.35%.
Equity indices closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 reaching a three‑week high and the Dow Jones hitting a fresh record. Gains were driven by robust performance among semiconductor firms, AI‑focused infrastructure stocks, and large‑cap technology companies. The market also benefited from upbeat U.S. economic data showing continued expansion in the services sector in June, coupled with modest payroll gains amid easing cost pressures.
The June ISM Services Index slipped 0.5 points to 54.0, matching analyst expectations. Its price‑paid sub‑index eased to 67.7 from 71.3 in May, still above the 67.5 forecast. Meanwhile, the employment component rose 3.3 points to 51.2, exceeding the consensus estimate of 48.2.
Equity and fixed‑income markets continued to benefit from the previous Thursday’s weaker‑than‑expected rise in U.S. non‑farm payrolls, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten monetary policy in the near term.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, earnings per share are projected to rise 23% in the quarter, approaching the 30% surge recorded in Q1—well above the 12% consensus estimate. AI‑related spending is expected to dominate this growth, accounting for roughly 60% of the S&P 500’s EPS expansion.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (CLQ26) slipped 0.2% on Monday as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased shipments to near pre‑war levels. OPEC+ also announced on Sunday that it will add 188,000 barrels per day to its production target, effective August 1, as part of a phased reversal of earlier curtailments.
Investors are pricing in a 25% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate increase at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28‑29.
Global equity markets declined on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50, which had touched a fresh record, slipped 0.23% and closed lower. China’s Shanghai Composite edged down 0.06%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 barely moved, losing 0.01%.
Interest Rates
September 10‑year Treasury notes (ZNU6) rose 2 ticks, pushing the 10‑year yield down 0.6 basis points to 4.477%. The modest gain was supported by the same carryover effect from last Thursday’s weaker‑than‑expected June payroll data, which dampened expectations of further Fed tightening. Additionally, lower crude oil prices helped sustain demand for Treasuries.
The upward movement in Treasuries was tempered on Monday after the June ISM Services index came in line with expectations, and its employment component climbed— a factor that leans toward hawkish Fed policy. Strong equity performance also reduced safe‑haven inflows into bonds. Moreover, upcoming Treasury supply is expected to weigh on prices, with a $58 billion auction of 3‑year notes scheduled for Tuesday, part of a $119 billion weekly issuance.
European government bond yields rose on Monday. The German 10‑year Bund climbed to a two‑week high of 2.949%, up 1.3 basis points, while the UK 10‑year gilt yield increased 1.1 basis points to 4.793%.
Eurozone retail sales rose 0.2% month‑over‑month in May, falling short of the 0.3% forecast.
Eurozone investor confidence, as measured by the July Sentix index, jumped 10.3 points to –3.1, a four‑month high and better than the anticipated –10.0.
German factory orders increased 1.9% month‑over‑month in May, surpassing the 1.1% consensus estimate.
Swap markets are pricing in only a 3% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the ECB at its upcoming policy meeting on July 23.
US Stock Movers
Semiconductor and AI‑focused stocks posted gains on Monday, propelling the broader market higher. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose above 2%. Western Digital (WDC) jumped more than 7%, topping Nasdaq‑100 movers, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed over 6%. Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) and Qualcomm (QCOM) each advanced more than 5%, and ON Semiconductor (ON) added over 4%. Additional gains were seen from Microchip Technology (MCHP), Analog Devices (ADI), and ASML Holding (ASML), each up more than 3%, with NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and ARM Holdings (ARM) rising above 2%.
The majority of the Magnificent Seven tech giants posted gains on Monday, bolstering the broader market. Tesla (TSLA) rose over 6%, and Meta Platforms (META) added more than 2%. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) each climbed above 1%, Amazon.com (AMZN) edged up 0.61%, and Nvidia (NVDA) advanced 0.40%. Microsoft (MSFT) bucked the trend, falling 0.96% after announcing plans to cut 3,200 jobs—about 20% of its Xbox division workforce—over the next year.
Cybersecurity equities rallied on Monday, supporting the overall market. Okta (OKTA) rose more than 5%, Fortinet (FTNT) gained over 3%, and other peers—including CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Zscaler (ZS), and Cloudflare (NET)—each added more than 2%.
Dell Technologies (DELL) rose more than 4% following favorable social‑media remarks from former President Donald Trump.
Axon Enterprise (AXON) climbed more than 4% after Needham & Co. raised its price target from $600 to $750.
Macy’s (M) increased more than 2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight and set a $30 price target.
U.S. Bancorp (USB) gained more than 2% after Jeffries upgraded the rating from hold to buy, raising its price target to $75.
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) fell more than 7% after Ynet reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated the proposed sale of the company is “not on the agenda.”
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) dropped more than 6%, topping the S&P 500 losers, after a report surfaced that the firm was exploring the acquisition of Genuine Parts Co’s auto‑parts business.
Constellation Brands (STZ) slipped more than 4% after Morgan Stanley highlighted potential Q3 demand weakness for beer sales following defeats by Brazil and Mexico in the World Cup on Sunday.
Brown & Brown (BRO) fell 2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from equal weight to underweight and set a $55 price target.
JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) slid more than 2% after Morgan Stanley cut the rating to underweight and trimmed its price target to $200.
Earnings Reports(7/7/2026)
Enerpac Tool Group Corp (EPAC), Enovix Corp (ENVX), Kura Sushi USA Inc (KRUS), MarketAxess Holdings Inc (MKTX), Penguin Solutions Inc (PENG).
