The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed Tuesday up 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) edged up 0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) climbed 1.10%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) gained 0.35%, while September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) rose 1.05%.
Equity benchmarks finished higher as Treasury yields retreated following a better-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index report for June. The 10-year T-note yield declined 4 basis points to 4.58%. Supportive remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Warsh also bolstered sentiment; he characterized the U.S. economy as resilient and growing at a solid pace, with a broadly stable labor market.
Semiconductor shares rebounded, recouping a portion of Monday’s losses, as South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 0.73% on gains in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. U.S. bank stocks rallied after Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo reported stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter earnings. Conversely, software stocks slumped, led by a 24% plunge in IBM after the company reported preliminary Q2 revenue below consensus estimates.
The June headline CPI eased to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, beating the 3.8% forecast. Core CPI slowed to 2.6% year-over-year from 2.9%, also improving on the 2.8% expectation.
Fed Chair Warsh emphasized the economy’s resilience and solid nominal wage growth, adding that the central bank has “no tolerance” for persistently high inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the CPI report as “surprisingly benign,” though he cautioned that policymakers require more than a single month of data to confirm a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.
Stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data supported the global growth outlook. June exports surged 27.0% year-over-year, exceeding the 19.0% estimate, while imports jumped 36.0%, well above the 26.1% forecast and marking the largest increase in five years.
On the downside, WTI crude oil (CLQ26) rose over 1% to a one-month high, extending Monday’s 9% surge, after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal effectively collapsed. The U.S. reinstated a naval blockade and launched a new wave of airstrikes, while Iran targeted additional oil tankers in Omani waters near the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade’s reinstatement raises the risk of further attacks on shipping transiting the strait. However, crude prices pared gains after President Trump announced plans to replace the 20% U.S. Reimbursement Fee for protecting the Strait with trade and investment deals with Gulf states.
The outlook for robust second-quarter earnings, kicking off this week, remains a bullish catalyst. Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts Q2 earnings growth of approximately 23%, nearing Q1’s 30% surge—which was more than double the 12% analysts had projected. Artificial intelligence spending is expected to drive the bulk of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks projected to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
Markets are pricing in a 17% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Overseas markets also advanced. The Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.15%. China’s Shanghai Composite rebounded from a 3.5-month low to close up 1.36%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered from a one-month low to gain 0.74%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) closed up 7 ticks, pushing the 10-year yield down 4.7 basis points to 4.577%. T-notes recovered from a 1.75-month low, with the yield retreating from a 1.75-month high of 4.634%. The rally was driven by the softer-than-expected June CPI print. Chair Warsh’s “no tolerance” stance on inflation also supported fixed income. T-notes initially dipped on the back of higher crude oil prices.
European government bond yields moved higher. The 10-year German bund yield touched a 1.75-month high of 3.144% before settling up 0.5 basis points at 3.113%. The 10-year UK gilt yield hit a 1.75-month high of 5.048%, finishing up 0.8 basis points at 4.977%.
Swaps indicate a 14% chance of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at the July 23 policy meeting.
U.S. Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure names rebounded, clawing back Monday’s selloff. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) surged more than 2%. Sandisk (SNDK) jumped over 5%, while Nvidia (NVDA), Lam Research (LRCX), Micron Technology (MU), and Intel (INTC) each rose more than 4%. Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML Holding (ASML), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) advanced over 3%. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Seagate Technology (STX), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Texas Instruments (TXN) climbed more than 2%.
Cybersecurity stocks rallied. CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) soared over 12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while Okta (OKTA) gained more than 10%. Zscaler (ZS) rose over 7%, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) added over 6%, Cloudflare (NET) climbed more than 4%, and Fortinet (FTNT) advanced over 3%.
Mining shares benefited from sharp gains in gold, silver, and copper. Southern Copper (SCCO) rose over 4%, and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) gained more than 3%. Coeur Mining (CDE) added over 2%, while Newmont (NEM), Hecla Mining (HL), and Barrick Gold (GOLD) each rose more than 1%.
Software stocks retreated, dragged down by a 25% collapse in International Business Machines (IBM) following disappointing preliminary Q2 revenue. Atlassian (TEAM) fell over 7%, ServiceNow (NOW) dropped more than 5%, and Adobe (ADBE) and Workday (WDAY) each declined over 4% and 3%, respectively. Oracle (ORCL), Intuit (INTU), Thomson Reuters (TRI), Salesforce (CRM), and Autodesk (ADSK) slid more than 2%, while Microsoft (MSFT) edged down over 1%.
Goldman Sachs (GS) surged 9% to pace the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 equities and trading revenue of $7.42 billion, significantly exceeding the $5.02 billion consensus.
O-I Glass (OI) tumbled over 12% after Bank of America double-downgraded the stock to Underperform from Buy with an $11 price target.
Biogen (BIIB) fell more than 8% after its investigational Alzheimer’s therapy, diranersen, failed to meet its primary endpoint of dose response in a clinical trial.
CoStar Group (CSGP) declined over 4% following the announcement that Robin Rossman will replace Christian Lown as CFO, effective July 31.
Earnings Reports (7/15/2026)
Bank of New York Mellon (BK), BlackRock (BLK), Cintas (CTAS), Conagra Brands (CAG), Elevance Health (ELV), First Horizon (FHN), JB Hunt Transport (JBHT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), M&T Bank (MTB), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), Progressive (PGR), United Airlines (UAL).