U.S. Stocks Edge Higher as Oil Prices Slip and Bond Yields Ease

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) (SPY) is up 0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOWI) (DIA) is up 0.57%, and the Nasdaq‑100 Index (IUXX) (QQQ) is down 0.18%. June E‑mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up 0.09%, while June E‑mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down 0.14%.

Indexes are mixed, with the Dow posting a new all‑time high. Falling crude oil prices—down more than 3% to a 3.25‑month low—have reduced inflation expectations, supporting both equities and bonds. The market also retains momentum from Monday’s rally after the United States and Iran agreed to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing risk‑on sentiment. The 10‑year Treasury note yield fell 2 basis points to 4.45%.

Stock gains are constrained by weaker energy stocks, driven by the oil price plunge, and by softer U.S. housing data. The focus now shifts to the two‑day FOMC meeting that begins today, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While rates are expected to hold steady, investors will watch Warsh’s press conference for clues on future inflation outlook.

U.S. May housing starts slipped 15.4% month‑over‑month to a six‑year low of 1.177 million, well below the 1.430 million consensus. Building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, fell 0.7% to 1.413 million, versus expectations of 1.418 million.

The May import price index excluding petroleum rose 0.8% month‑over‑month, beating the 0.5% forecast.

WTI crude (CLN26) is down more than 3%, reflecting the U.S.–Iran agreement that should restore oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 Brent forecast to $80 a barrel from $90 and expects Persian Gulf exports to return to pre‑war levels by the end of July, a month earlier than previously projected.

Markets are pricing roughly a 4% chance of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.

Overseas markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.61%, China’s Shanghai Composite closed down 0.11% after retreating from a 1.5‑week high, and Japan’s Nikkei‑225 reached a new all‑time high, ending up 0.13%.

Interest Rates

September 10‑year Treasury notes (ZNU6) are up 4 ticks, with the yield down 2.0 bp to 4.453%. The decline in WTI supports lower inflation expectations, which is bullish for Treasuries, while weaker housing data adds further support. Investors hope for a less hawkish FOMC outcome, assuming oil prices continue to fall as the Strait reopens.

European sovereign yields are slipping. The 10‑year German bund fell to an eight‑week low of 2.921% (down 3 bp), and the 10‑year UK gilt slipped 3 bp to 4.782%.

Eurozone Q1 labor costs were revised down to 3.2% year‑over‑year, from the previously reported 3.4%.

Germany’s June ZEW index rose 20.7 points to 10.5, a four‑month high, beating the forecast of –5.5.

Swaps imply a 17% probability of a 25‑bp ECB rate hike at the July 23 meeting.

U.S. Stock Movers

Semiconductor and AI‑infrastructure stocks are leading gains. Western Digital (WDC) jumped over 6%, topping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‑100 gainers, while Seagate (STX) and Qualcomm (QCOM) rose more than 4%. ARM Holdings (ARM) added over 2%, and Analog Devices (ADI), SanDisk (SNDK) and Microchip (MCHP) each gained over 1%.

Airlines and cruise operators rallied as lower oil prices cut fuel costs. American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest (LUV) rose over 3%; Carnival (CCL), Alaska Air (ALK) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) each climbed more than 2%, with Royal Caribbean (RCL), United (UAL) and Delta (DAL) up over 1%.

Mining stocks advanced on higher gold, silver and copper prices. Coeur Mining (CDE) rose more than 3%; Hecla (HL), Newmont (NEM), Barrick (B) and Southern Copper (SCCO) each gained over 2%, while Freeport‑McMoRan (FCX) and AngloGold Ashanti (AU) moved up more than 1%.

Cybersecurity stocks lagged, restraining broader market momentum. Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Zscaler (ZS) and Fortinet (FTNT) fell over 2%, and CrowdStrike (CRWD) dropped more than 1%.

Energy stocks declined alongside the oil slide. Valero Energy (VLO) fell over 2%, and ConocoPhillips (COP), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Devon Energy (DVN), Halliburton (HAL), APA Corp (APA) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) each slipped more than 1%.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) surged over 13%, extending a 37% gain over the past two sessions after its record‑breaking $75 billion IPO.

Mobileye Global (MBLY) rose more than 5% after announcing plans to expand from autonomous‑driving technology into full‑ownership autonomous ride‑hailing.

Valmont Industries (VMI) climbed over 3% after forecasting $5.4 billion in organic net sales and a $35 EPS target for 2029.

Edwards Lifesciences (EW) gained over 3% following a favorable U.S. government coverage proposal for transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

Huntsman (HUN) dropped more than 13% after agreeing to an all‑stock merger of equals with Olin.

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) fell more than 6% after reporting Q1 revenue of $559.2 million, missing the consensus of $580.3 million.

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) slid over 3%, leading S&P 500 decliners after several analysts cut price targets.

Huson Pacific Properties (HPP) and Tanger (SKT) each fell just over 1% following downgrades to “underperform” by Bank of America Global Research.

Earnings Reports (June 16 2026)

John Wiley & Sons (WLY) and La‑Z‑Boy (LZB) reported earnings.

Source link