UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Betting Odds, Prop Bets, and Expert Predictions

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JULY 09: (L-R) Conor McGregor and Max Holloway face off during the UFC 329 press conference at T-Mobile Arena on July 09, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

Zuffa LLC

Saturday’s UFC 329 pay-per-view marks the highly anticipated return of former two-division champion Conor McGregor. In the main event, McGregor rematches former featherweight titleholder Max Holloway, renewing a rivalry that began with a unanimous-decision win for McGregor at 145 pounds in 2013. This time, the bout takes place at the welterweight limit of 170 pounds. Below is a breakdown of the betting odds, line movement, notable prop bets, and expert picks for the UFC 329 main card.

UFC 329 Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2 — Odds, Line Movement, and Prediction

When the market opened, Holloway was a -345 favorite with McGregor at +250. Significant action on the Irishman has tightened the line; Holloway now sits at -235, while McGregor is offered at +190. The betting public heavily favors McGregor, with 85% of tickets and 73% of the money wagered on his side.

Pick: Max Holloway by knockout.

UFC 329 Co-Main Event: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett — Odds, Line Movement, and Prediction

Opening odds listed Saint Denis at -160 and Pimblett at +125. The line has shifted slightly; Saint Denis is now -145, with Pimblett at +120. While 87% of bets are on Pimblett, 55% of the total handle backs Saint Denis, indicating sharp money on the favorite.

Pick: Benoit Saint Denis by decision. Value play: Paddy Pimblett by submission.

UFC 329 Main Card: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista — Odds, Line Movement, and Prediction

Sandhagen opened as a -150 favorite and remains at -145, with Bautista at +115. Despite the underdog status, Bautista has attracted 60% of tickets and a striking 81% of the handle.

Pick: Cory Sandhagen by decision.

UFC 329 Main Card: Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh — Odds, Line Movement, and Prediction

Kavanagh moved from a -200 opener to -220, while Royval drifted from +160 to +180. The public leans toward the underdog, with 59% of bets on Royval, but 80% of the money is on Kavanagh.

Pick: Lone’er Kavanagh by knockout.

UFC 329 Main Card Opener: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney — Odds, Line Movement, and Prediction

McKinney opened at -170 but has shortened to -140; Green is now +115. Green has drawn 79% of the bets, while the handle is evenly split.

Pick: A knockout finish is the safest play; lean toward Terrance McKinney to secure the stoppage.

UFC 329: Most Popular Prop Bets

Conor McGregor by KO/TKO or DQ — +250
Conor McGregor by Decision/Technical Decision — +1200
Conor McGregor by Submission — +2500
Paddy Pimblett by Submission — +500
Max Holloway by KO/TKO or DQ — -140

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

UFC 329: Conor McGregor’s Return to the Octagon

This marks the latest attempt to bring McGregor back to competition. In April 2024, the UFC scheduled McGregor vs. Michael Chandler for UFC 303, projecting a record $20 million live gate. A broken toe forced McGregor’s withdrawal in June, and the Pereira vs. Prochazka headliner ultimately drew a $15.9 million gate. UFC 306 at the Sphere later became the first event to surpass $20 million, generating $21.8 million.

The 37-year-old McGregor (22–6) is 1–3 since October 2018. His lone win in that span was a January 2020 TKO of Donald Cerrone. Back-to-back TKO losses to Dustin Poirier followed, the latter ending with a broken leg in July 2021. Outside the cage, McGregor was found liable for sexual assault in a civil case.

Holloway (34) has fought eight times since McGregor’s last appearance, going 5–3. His losses came in title bouts against Charles Oliveira (BMF), Ilia Topuria (featherweight), and Alexander Volkanovski (featherweight). Victories include Yair Rodriguez, Arnold Allen, Chan Sung Jung, Justin Gaethje (BMF), and Dustin Poirier (BMF defense).

The pair first met in August 2013 at featherweight, with McGregor winning a unanimous decision. UFC 329 will write the next chapter.

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