The UK-France “one in one out” migration agreement, designed to deter illegal Channel crossings, is formally expected to expire this Thursday, government sources have confirmed. Negotiations to extend the pact have stalled, with French authorities insisting on a broader, Europe-wide framework rather than a bilateral deal.
Under the scheme, flights removing individuals already detained under the agreement will continue, but are projected to wind down within weeks. A UK government source stated that while the administration would prefer the deal to continue, its limited scale meant it never functioned as a robust deterrent to small boat arrivals. “It’s not the end of the world if it doesn’t [expire], because it never got to the scale where it would have been a proper deterrent,” the source remarked.
The French interior ministry confirmed that both nations are currently discussing the terms of the agreement’s wind-down. The pact, launched in July 2025 by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, saw its first flights depart in September of that year. Starmer had hailed the initiative at its inception as a “groundbreaking” step toward curbing illegal migration.
Since its implementation, more than 1,400 individuals who arrived in the UK via small boats have been returned to France. Conversely, as of late June 2026, 1,117 individuals with ties to the UK were returned from France under the deal. The agreement was initially slated to terminate in April but was extended to October 1 to address seasonal spikes in summer crossings.
However, the practical outcomes of the scheme have drawn criticism. Many of those deported to France under the deal have faced homelessness, particularly in Paris, with some returning to migrant camps around Calais and Dunkirk, and ultimately attempting the Channel crossing back to the UK.
France’s interior minister, Laurent Nuñez, previously acknowledged the potential deterrent value of the scheme but emphasized that Paris would not shoulder the operational and financial burden alone. He has advocated for the agreement to be folded into a broader EU-UK accord, noting that UNHCR reports suggest word of the deal is beginning to deter some prospective migrants.
Meanwhile, UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood disclosed that the bilateral deal cost approximately £56,000 for every individual returned to France. She dismissed suggestions that an EU-wide returns system—such as the pre-Brexit Dublin agreement—would be a “silver bullet” for the Channel crisis, highlighting severe operational constraints, including limited detention capacity, which hindered the scaling of removals. “The numbers are still relatively small,” Mahmood acknowledged during parliamentary discussions.
Despite these challenges, official data shows that between January and late September 2026, small boat crossings totaled 19,135, representing a 42% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.