Ukraine Faces Mounting Troop Shortages as War Enters Fifth Year

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s advancements in drone technology and military tactics have drawn global attention, yet a persistent challenge remains: a critical shortage of combat-ready troops. Since Russia’s invasion began, the demand for personnel has grown increasingly urgent, with some military units operating at just half their intended strength. As the conflict enters its fifth year, commanders and analysts report that the imbalance in manpower has hindered Ukraine’s ability to fully capitalize on its technological edge.

A deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion in the Pokrovsk region of eastern Ukraine, speaking on condition of anonymity due to military protocols, stated, “Based on the equipment and the number of people we have today, we barely have enough to hold the sector we currently have.” He further cautioned that advancing further would likely result in higher casualties.

The ongoing struggles with mobilization, including widespread draft evasion and desertions, have complicated efforts to replenish depleted ranks. These issues have left Ukraine with only incremental gains along its 1,250-kilometer (775-mile) front line, limiting its capacity to deploy forces rapidly without compromising other sectors. Analysts note that this constraint reduces Ukraine’s ability to convert temporary battlefield successes into sustained operations.

Nick Reynolds, a defense analyst at the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute, explained that the shortage of personnel has led to insufficient troop rotations, resulting in exhaustion among soldiers and higher casualty rates. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry, recently restructured under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is implementing reforms aimed at improving mobilization, training, and military organization. However, one official acknowledged, “There just are not enough people.”

The ministry is considering new mobilization policies, including incentives for deserters to return, though these measures remain sensitive. Previous Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov sought to reorganize the military by reinforcing effective units and disbanding weaker ones, a strategy continued by current Minister Yevhenii Khmara. However, lawmakers have yet to review these initiatives. In June, Fedorov introduced reforms to military contracts to make infantry service more appealing through increased pay and fixed-term enlistment.

Recruitment challenges are exacerbated by Ukraine’s demographic decline, following years of war-related displacement and emigration. With an estimated 39 million citizens, the pool of eligible men (aged 25–60) is limited to roughly 6.8 million, including many wounded veterans or those unfit for service. The military currently stands at approximately 1 million personnel, with only a fraction deployed to the front lines.

Compulsory service applies to men, while women may volunteer or serve in specialized roles. Over 70,000 women are active in the military, according to January 2025 defense ministry data. In March, Fedorov reported that around 2 million Ukrainian men were evading service, with 200,000 soldiers having deserted or abandoned their units. Desertion carries penalties of up to 12 years in prison. Authorities regularly recruit from public spaces, sending those without valid exemptions to the military. Meanwhile, 950,000 men received business-subsidized deferments in January 2025.

Russia, with a population of 143 million, also faces recruitment difficulties. Its 2022 partial mobilization, deemed unpopular, triggered mass emigration, prompting reliance on volunteers drawn by higher wages. Moscow claims its forces number approximately 700,000 fighters, comparable to Ukraine’s standing army.

Military analyst Taras Chmut, who leads the charity Come Back Alive, argues Ukraine’s issue lies not in personnel quantity but in deployment efficiency. Exhaustion, poor organization, and inadequate training contribute to desertion, undermining operational readiness. Troops in fields like the Da Vinci Wolves battalion have served up to a year without rotation as their operational zones have doubled in size, requiring fewer resources to cover expanded territory.

Despite these constraints, Ukraine has conducted limited offensives, recapturing 820 square kilometers (316 square miles) of territory since January 2026, compared to Russia’s occupation of 990 square kilometers, according to Zelenskyy. Analysts, however, expect the front line to remain largely static, with no significant shifts in the broader battlefield balance.

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