Ukraine’s 40-Day Offensive Tests Russia’s Economic Resilience

Ukraine’s 40-day “Forcing Russia to Peace” campaign, conducted from June 25 to August 4, struck over 100 strategic Russian targets including oil refineries, shadow fleet tankers, airfields, and military production facilities. The operation disabled approximately 43 percent of Russia’s refining capacity and reduced grain exports by 37.6 percent, according to analysis by Yuriy Svitlyk.

While Moscow acknowledged fuel shortages, its response was to intensify strikes on Ukraine, particularly in the capital region, rather than pursue negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelensky has authorized continued offensive operations to maintain momentum. Svitlyk assesses that the campaign demonstrated tangible economic pressure but likely requires multiple such cycles, combined with stringent sanctions, to meaningfully alter the Kremlin’s calculus toward negotiations.

“According to official data, during this time Ukraine was able to deal tangible blows to Russia’s oil, aviation, and sea infrastructure, make it difficult to circumvent sanctions, and demonstrate its ability to systematically transfer the war to the aggressor’s territory,” Svitlyk writes. “At the same time, neither the operation itself nor its continuation has yet led to a change in the Kremlin’s position on negotiations; Russia, according to the President’s Office, still counts on”

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